Nobody's Buying Electric Cars

erco · 2012-10-01 01:10

Or so says Yahoo. How much does a Nissan Leaf cost now? Are they dealin'?

A few people have them at work, and one VP has a Fisker. They get free recharging there!

http://news.yahoo.com/nobody-wants-buy-electric-cars-025530536--finance.html

http://news.yahoo.com/nissan-well-short-sales-target-leaf-electric-cars-195154156--finance.html

Maybe it's time to haggle... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGy0N9SW82c

Heater. · 2012-10-01 06:14

I haven't done the calculations for a long while so I don't know if the ecconomics of an electric car make sense yet. Certainly they don't for the Tesla:)

But recently Renult launched the Twizy electric car. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szN3bLF1oP4

Apart from the stupid name I love the idea.

So how do the sums add up? I have a short commute to work so let's compare ten years of going by public transport vs using a Twizy. The bus fare comes out to about 22000 Euro over ten years. That can be almost halved by buying a city bus card and using a bicycle in the summer months. So lets say 12000 Euro.
Using a Twizy will cost 7000 Euro initial purchase price plus 50 Euro per month lease on the battery pack. Say 12500 Euro. Then we have to add road taxes, insurance and such and let's not forget having to pay for the electricity required to recharge it twice a week.

So the Twizy may just be comparable given the extra convenience it buys me. But here is a possible deal buster, around here it's damn cold half of the year. How am going to cope with that in a vehicle with no heating or even side windows? Still, I want one just for fun in the city during the summer.:)

Scaling this up to a more expected 4 door car with longer range and I don't see how it is viable.

frank freedman · 2012-10-01 06:50

I have seen one Tesla and no other electrics (well except the occasional golf cart, most of which are in Sun City) in the Phoenix area. I do get a chuckle out of its license plate whenever I see it on I-10, it reads "fuelsux". Guess his electricity most fall from the sky or he has a direct connect to Palo Verde Nuc plant.......

jazzed · 2012-10-01 11:18

Honestly I don't look for EVs here in San Jose, but I did notice one yesterday. I don't have a crazy commute either.

There seems to be a lot of 2012 LEAF inventory here. Didn't see any 2013 models. Most of the Chevy volts listed are all 2013 models as far as I can tell - not many 2012 models. Volts are also hybrids, so they might be considered more practical.

I thought the sales differentials may be because of California HOV stickers. But both Green and White stickers expire in 2015.

LoopyByteloose · 2012-10-01 11:38

It seems that at some point, oil and gasoline are just going to go sky high. For the USA, the heavy trucking and inner-city delivery fleets are beginning to shift over to LNG. But for the individual, the electric car may begin to look much more appealing at that point.

China's monopoly on rare earths, which are used in magnet alloys have put a damper on production. And I am not exactly sure that one must have Lithium batteries. It seems that NiMH batteries are nearly as good.

Add to all this that Germany is dealing with the Euro crisis and Japan has had the tsunami and reactor problem, the development of electric cars is going slower than expected.

Personally, I dread the idea of having to drag out an extension cord nearly everytime I park and then packing it away before I can go anywhere. These autos should have special parking spaces with an electrical interlock that is automatic. But we are not there yet.

Hybrids still seem the most reasonable way to go -- maybe with fuel cells.

NWCCTV · 2012-10-01 11:52

Loopy Byteloose wrote: »

These autos should have special parking spaces with an electrical interlock that is automatic. QUOTE]

Our local Mall in Federal Way, WA actually has 4 Electric Car filling spots right outside Sears.

jazzed · 2012-10-01 11:59

One source suggests that there are 33.7 kilowatt-hours of equivalent electricity in a gallon of gasoline. YMMV.

jdolecki · 2012-10-01 12:18

Chevy volt

$1,400 for one battery pack takes 4 so if one goes out still 1,400 part plus labor.

WBA Consulting · 2012-10-01 12:22

I don't have the sources to quantify the statement, but I was told that for every $40,000 Chevy Volt sold, $20,000 of taxpayer money goes to Chevy as well. Effectively, it costs 60k to make, but through subsidies, can be sold for 40k.

jazzed · 2012-10-01 12:32

WBA Consulting wrote: »

I don't have the sources to quantify the statement, but I was told that for every $40,000 Chevy Volt sold, $20,000 of taxpayer money goes to Chevy as well. Effectively, it costs 60k to make, but through subsidies, can be sold for 40k.

I've heard something like that too. Of course some "pundits" put the subsidy at $250K per car. Wonder what the truth really is.

Circuitsoft · 2012-10-01 13:23

I imagine it's probably $20k for manufacture, but $230k per car for R&D for X number of cars. I wonder what X is?

Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi) · 2012-10-01 13:51

jazzed wrote:

One source suggests that there are 33.7 kilowatt-hours of equivalent electricity in a gallon of gasoline.

I pay, on average, about $.09/kWh, so that works out to $3.03/gal. equivalent. That's a savings over what I pay for diesel, but not significant enough to switch to electric. Plus, the range thing is an issue. My trips tend to be either very short (< 3 mi.) or in excess of 200 mi. And some of my destinations (e.g. trailheads on Forest Service roads) do not have electricity. It's not like I have a consistent daily commute of 50 mi. round-trip where an electric might make sense.

-Phil

Dave Hein · 2012-10-01 14:06

The development and tooling costs for the Volt are about $1.2 billion. If you average that over the 20,000 Volts sold it's about $60,000 per car. The estimates that I've seen for parts and labor to build a Volt are about $24,000. By my calculations, they would have to sell 75,000 Volts to break even on the development and tooling costs. That doesn't include all the marketing and other costs associated with promoting and selling the Volt, so the volume will have to be higher to account for that. However, if GM survives they should have recouped their R&D costs in 3 or 4 years. Of course, that assumes that the competition doesn't drive the price down during that period.

ctwardell · 2012-10-01 14:38

Dave Hein wrote: »

The development and tooling costs for the Volt are about $1.2 billion. If you average that over the 20,000 Volts sold it's about $60,000 per car. The estimates that I've seen for parts and labor to build a Volt are about $24,000. By my calculations, they would have to sell 75,000 Volts to break even on the development and tooling costs. That doesn't include all the marketing and other costs associated with promoting and selling the Volt, so the volume will have to be higher to account for that. However, if GM survives they should have recouped their R&D costs in 3 or 4 years. Of course, that assumes that the competition doesn't drive the price down during that period.

A big problem though is that a lot, if not most, of the cars a leased instead of sold. From what I have read the figure may be around 2/3 are leased and the leases seem to range from $250 down $199/mo for 2 years to $3000 down $299/mo for 2 years, either way that covers a very small part of the price of the car and given the typical loss in value of a two year old car there is no way it will sell for anywhere near the "payoff" of the list price.

I doubt the engineering costs are ever recovered directly by the Volt. more likely through spin off's of the engineering being used in future cars.

C.W.

jazzed · 2012-10-01 14:56

I guess if one counts the bail-out, the $250K number is reasonable. Of course the bail-out funds are spread across the entire product line and large parts of the economy from raw materials, to parts suppliers, on out to dealer service, etc .... depending on the economic school.

Phil, I've thought about electric for in-town and maybe renting a horse (or a Camry) for longer trips.

I paid $4.29 a gallon last week. According to some accounts that means an electric would be half the "operating cost", but my already expensive electric bill would probably go ballistic. I'm not convinced that I would be any better off with either a LEAF (100% electric) or a Volt (hybrid) than I am now. If I could benefit from the HOV lanes, I might reconsider though.

Beau Schwabe · 2012-10-01 15:02

I still want to convert one of these to "Assisted Electric" ... There is enough canopy real estate to be replaced with a couple hundred watts of Solar panel that could provide assisted pedaling electric power. Personally, I would go all over the place in one of these!!

http://www.choppersus.com/store/product/1007/6-Person-Surrey-Bicycle/

Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi) · 2012-10-01 15:36

Beau Schwabe wrote:

Personally, I would go all over the place in one of these!!

Oklahoma must really be flat!

-Phil

Peter KG6LSE · 2012-10-01 18:39

jazzed wrote: »

, but my already expensive electric bill would probably go ballistic. I'm not convinced that I would be any better off with either a LEAF (100% electric) or a Volt (hybrid) than I am now. If I could benefit from the HOV lanes, I might reconsider though.

I did the math and my Segway's Juice is gonna cost me under 10 USD a Year to operate . its a scooter not as car but the over all Idea is the same .

ctwardell wrote: »

I doubt the engineering costs are ever recovered directly by the Volt. more likely through spin off's of the engineering being used in future cars.

C.W.

Bingo !

just casue the 1st iteration is Over priced the SW and HW can be adapted to other models too in the end .

Peter

Tracy Allen · 2012-10-01 19:32

We have a plug-in Prius. My wife drives it mainly, and the commute is only two miles each way plus assorted errands that usually stay within the 12 mile EV-only range. After that and for long trips it kicks into standard hybrid mode. We don't have a garage and charging at home is a problem, but at the office there is a 120V outlet right inside the door, so we keep the charging cable ready and charge it there. 3 hours at 11A/120V for another 12 mile EV-only stint.

San Francisco has both high gas prices and high electricity prices. The baseline residential electricity rate here is $0.13 per kwh, tiered as you use more, but at work we are on the commercial rate of $0.20 per kwh, with no time-of-day allowance.

The official EPA gas/electric equivalent is 33.7kwh per gallon. So that 33.7 kwh equivalent costs me the equivalent of $6.74 per gallon. That is steep compared to our $4+ gas prices. Nevertheless, it evens out when considering the conversion of gas versus electric to miles. The electric battery+motor gets 100 miles from that 33.7 kwh while the gas alone gets 50 miles from the gallon. (roughly, under certain controlled conditions, I think I am understanding that correctly.) At 100 miles per 34kwh, the 12 miles of EV cost us about $0.80, whereas if we used the Prius with gas/hybrid only for those 12 miles, it would cost us about $1.

Clearly we didn't buy it for economic reasons, even with tax breaks and HOV stickers. I confess I love the engineering, the star, ring and planetary gears of the synergy drive, and the green aspects of running the engine near optimum RPM, and more. My wife wanted a Tesla roadster to show off to the Italian relatives, but you know, the $$$$$$, and where would we park it?!?!

W9GFO · 2012-10-01 20:17

Tracy Allen wrote: »

The electric battery+motor gets 100 miles from that 33.7 kwh while the gas alone gets 50 miles from the gallon.

What is the usable capacity of the Prius's battery?

jmg · 2012-10-01 21:18

Beau Schwabe (Parallax) wrote: »

I still want to convert one of these to "Assisted Electric" ... There is enough canopy real estate to be replaced with a couple hundred watts of Solar panel that could provide assisted pedaling electric power. Personally, I would go all over the place in one of these!!

Nifty, but Air Bags and Side intrusion beams are where, exactly ?
In cities with bike lanes, is that allowed on them ?

They do not seem to have Electric Bikes, which are perhaps more practical, and I see that model is 'out of stock'

LoopyByteloose · 2012-10-02 02:35

Subsidy? Taiwan is now debating the subsidy of LED light replaces for the energy efficient florescent bulb.

Germany heavily subsidized solar panels to get them going and now is able to retire its nuclear industry.

It may not really be environmental to do all this, but it certainly keeps GDP growth for some.

Gadgetman · 2012-10-02 07:02

One thing to note when comparing gasoline engines versus electrics is that electric engines have a really good torque when it matters, and doesn't need all the BHPs that a gas engine needs to perform the same task.
That's why a 'city' type electric can do with as little as 20BHP (15KH)

The problem with most electric cars today is that they're constructed the same way as all the Obsoletemobiles already filling up the roads; 4 wheels, lots of steel, one big lumpy engine, diff..
Junking the '1 engine' principle and going for a 2 or 4WD system, with motors at each wheel removes the need for heavy diffs and axles. It results in the need for a more advanced motor controller, though.
4 wheels is also not that efficient. There's rolling resistance, a more advanced and heavy suspension...

Yeah, I want to build my own electric trike some day...

Until then, I'll have to be content with my 250W power-assist motor on my bicycle.
(a 4Kg, 36V/10Ah pack lasts me to work and back, a total of 60Km )

erco · 2012-10-02 08:32

"Who Killed the Electric Car" is an interesting film, much about GM's EV-1. Free to view online below. Paints a pretty bad picture of the oil industry and GM too. Everyone who drove and repaired the cars had good things to say. Little maintenance compared to IC engines. They were all leased, no purchases. GM gave some to celebrities to get their endorsement, which backfired when GM took them (stole back, in some cases) after the lease was up and CRUSHED THEM. Only a few survive, mainly in museums.

Definitely a one-sided presentation, but who doesn't love a good conspiracy? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1

Peter KG6LSE · 2012-10-02 08:46

http://www.flickr.com/photos/peterthethinker/8047426702/in/photostream?likes_hd=1

that boat was Drawing 45 kW 35.2 MPH in water.. you really dont need more then 50 HP on a EV

was ran on AGM batts .

erco · 2012-10-02 10:18

More doom & gloom prospects for EV battery makers:

http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1366&doc_id=251483

erco · 2012-10-02 10:26

Peter KG6LSE wrote: »

I did the math and my Segway's Juice is gonna cost me under 10 USD a Year to operate . its a scooter not as car but the over all Idea is the same .

@Peter: Since you're a Segway fan, you've probably see this already: Seattle to Boston on a Segway at 10 MPH over 100 days: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_MPH

BTW I biked coast to coast in 20 days, for me that's funner than standing on a Segway and replacing parts and batteries along the way, but this guy and his film crew had a real adventure on the way.

Heater. · 2012-10-02 10:56

erco,

Re: Who killed the Electric Car. Thanks for the link to thate great docmentary, especially as I have no access to my Propeller toys here this eveing or even a TV to watch.

I love the quote "that sucker really goes!"

Could not find Part 8 - It's missing, it's a concipiracy I tell you.

Now the biggie: How come I have never heard of Stanford Ovshinsky? Inventor of the NiMh battery, thin-film solar energy laminates and panels, flat screen liquid crystal displays, rewritable CD and DVD computer memories; hydrogen fuel cells, and nonvolatile phase-change electronic memories and a bunch of other stuff.

Stan must have Eddison squirming in his grave.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_R._Ovshinsky

Finally, when are we going to see an electric vehicle from Parallax?:)

Tracy Allen · 2012-10-02 11:32

W9GFO wrote: »

What is the usable capacity of the Prius's battery?

Rich, the official capacity is 4.4 kWh. It doesn't quite add up in terms of the conservative use of the battery that has been a hallmark of the Prius. At 12 miles of EV-only travel at 100 MPGe and 33.7 kWh/gallon equivalent, that comes out to 4kWh of the battery capacity used and less than 10% remaining at the point where it switches over to hybrid mode. In the original Prius the NiMH battery is kept always between 40% and 60% of its capacity (1.5 kWh). It's puzzling. Early reports from Toyota claimed a battery capacity of 5.2kWh for the plug-in, and that 3.8kWh of that would be allotted to EV mode.

erco · 2012-10-08 09:56

Why your car isnt electric: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/magazine/why-your-car-isnt-electric.html?src=recg&_r=0

kwinn · 2012-10-08 10:39

Gadgetman wrote: »

One thing to note when comparing gasoline engines versus electrics is that electric engines have a really good torque when it matters, and doesn't need all the BHPs that a gas engine needs to perform the same task.
That's why a 'city' type electric can do with as little as 20BHP (15KH)

The problem with most electric cars today is that they're constructed the same way as all the Obsoletemobiles already filling up the roads; 4 wheels, lots of steel, one big lumpy engine, diff..
Junking the '1 engine' principle and going for a 2 or 4WD system, with motors at each wheel removes the need for heavy diffs and axles. It results in the need for a more advanced motor controller, though.
4 wheels is also not that efficient. There's rolling resistance, a more advanced and heavy suspension...

Yeah, I want to build my own electric trike some day...

Until then, I'll have to be content with my 250W power-assist motor on my bicycle.
(a 4Kg, 36V/10Ah pack lasts me to work and back, a total of 60Km )

That pretty much describes my thoughts for an electric or hybrid car. Two hub motors/wheels at the back, up front would have a single wheel for steering, batteries for the electric only, batteries and motor/alternator for the hybrid. For the motors I was thinking of permanent magnet BLDC hub motors.

Nobody's Buying Electric Cars

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