Propeller 1 (P8X32A-D40 and P8X32A-Q444) Supply Expectations
Ken Gracey
Posts: 7,392
Hey there,
I was out for a few days and was unable until now to reply to the concerns about Propeller 1 availability in both QFP and DIP format. First, please understand that this post is made on July 20th, 2015. The actual numbers will be changing as soon as I finalize this post. The takeaway that's most importantis that (a) we have chips, coming and going in medium-low volumes; (b) significant replenishment occurs in October; and (c) our Sales staff will try to serve as many customers as possible with available supply. I've got to run through the numbers myself just to get an accurate moving picture of what the inventory looks like for the next month or two, so I'll share them without much lower-level explanation.
P8X32A-D40 (the DIP Propeller 1) Our present inventory level shown on-line is 0, but we're actually in backorder -1,498 units due to a single distributor's order. We will put the distributor order on a 12-week lead time for our October deliver. By putting the distributor on a lead time and having our staff add another 1,714 units to inventory I expect to see an inventory of D40s in excess of 3,000 units available on-line within two weeks and will be visible here https://www.parallax.com/product/p8x32a-d40. The presently-shown October supply date will disappear as inventory trickles in from our Manufacturing and we have more than one in stock. The stock level is expected to increase as we test chips, but will decrease at some point as we start to run out of chips. I expect that we can fill a normal two month's demand from our untested chips.
P8X32A-Q44 (the QFP Propeller 1)
Similar situation with large distributor orders for their standard stocking levels. We will put a lead time on their orders for the QFP. Between this step and bringing more tested chips into inventory from our untested stock we should have in excess of 5,000 QFPs for delivery in the next coming weeks. You will see this inventory value reflected at https://www.parallax.com/product/p8x32a-q44. The presently-shown October supply date will disappear as inventory trickles in from our Manufacturing. This is a typical supply for a month or two.
Propeller 1 Inventory is Under Manual Allocation by our Sales Staff
The strategy here isn't one of playing games, but involves putting our available inventory under some sort of manual allocation control. It's an attempt to match our available inventory to a larger number of small customers who may not plan with lead times. Specifically, we'll use the inventory we have to serve as many customers as possible and provide the best service and communication we can. Larger orders will need a lead time, but it's likely we can satisfy some of their initial needs for prototyping or small production runs and help them avoid "line down" situations.
We will avoid having all the chips go to a single customer at this point. Our sales staff Kristina, Chantal and Julia determine where our available inventory is shipped. Just place your purchase orders to sales@parallax.com and order on-line as usual.
For both DIP and QFP packages, you should have no problem ordering small quantities on-line as inventory levels increase over the next few days and two weeks. Inventory will go up, then it will go down. By sometime in September we will be entirely out of stock. A very large inventory increase will occur in October.
Apply 12-week Lead Times in your Material Requirements Planning (MRP) Software
Almost all customers who normally use significant (> 1,000/order) volumes of Propeller chips manage their purchasing through an MRP system. MRP software has planning lead times. I strongly suggest you show your Purchasing Manager this post and ask them to put a 12-week lead time in for Propeller chips. While many in the forums will find this practice abhorrent in some ways, I assure you it's common. Once lead times are properly set throughout the supply chain there are fewer production planning issues and lack of supply isn't a surprise. Please enter a proper lead time and allow your MRP to get orders placed before you need the chips.
Why does it seem we're short of Propeller chips?
Because we are short, for two reasons. First, we've had higher orders than expected and some of our customers rely on us without a lead time [please enter a 12-week lead time in your planning system]. Next, we made a minor change in our own MRP system that went unnoticed for over a month. This change set the planning warehouse to a different warehouse than where demand is created. Sometimes we make these changes to make our physical inventory count smoother, like we just did in June (our inventory quantity and dollars were 99.85% accurate). Our Purchasing Manager and IT sorted out the problem and everything is in order again.
Thanks,
Ken Gracey
I was out for a few days and was unable until now to reply to the concerns about Propeller 1 availability in both QFP and DIP format. First, please understand that this post is made on July 20th, 2015. The actual numbers will be changing as soon as I finalize this post. The takeaway that's most importantis that (a) we have chips, coming and going in medium-low volumes; (b) significant replenishment occurs in October; and (c) our Sales staff will try to serve as many customers as possible with available supply. I've got to run through the numbers myself just to get an accurate moving picture of what the inventory looks like for the next month or two, so I'll share them without much lower-level explanation.
P8X32A-D40 (the DIP Propeller 1) Our present inventory level shown on-line is 0, but we're actually in backorder -1,498 units due to a single distributor's order. We will put the distributor order on a 12-week lead time for our October deliver. By putting the distributor on a lead time and having our staff add another 1,714 units to inventory I expect to see an inventory of D40s in excess of 3,000 units available on-line within two weeks and will be visible here https://www.parallax.com/product/p8x32a-d40. The presently-shown October supply date will disappear as inventory trickles in from our Manufacturing and we have more than one in stock. The stock level is expected to increase as we test chips, but will decrease at some point as we start to run out of chips. I expect that we can fill a normal two month's demand from our untested chips.
P8X32A-Q44 (the QFP Propeller 1)
Similar situation with large distributor orders for their standard stocking levels. We will put a lead time on their orders for the QFP. Between this step and bringing more tested chips into inventory from our untested stock we should have in excess of 5,000 QFPs for delivery in the next coming weeks. You will see this inventory value reflected at https://www.parallax.com/product/p8x32a-q44. The presently-shown October supply date will disappear as inventory trickles in from our Manufacturing. This is a typical supply for a month or two.
Propeller 1 Inventory is Under Manual Allocation by our Sales Staff
The strategy here isn't one of playing games, but involves putting our available inventory under some sort of manual allocation control. It's an attempt to match our available inventory to a larger number of small customers who may not plan with lead times. Specifically, we'll use the inventory we have to serve as many customers as possible and provide the best service and communication we can. Larger orders will need a lead time, but it's likely we can satisfy some of their initial needs for prototyping or small production runs and help them avoid "line down" situations.
We will avoid having all the chips go to a single customer at this point. Our sales staff Kristina, Chantal and Julia determine where our available inventory is shipped. Just place your purchase orders to sales@parallax.com and order on-line as usual.
For both DIP and QFP packages, you should have no problem ordering small quantities on-line as inventory levels increase over the next few days and two weeks. Inventory will go up, then it will go down. By sometime in September we will be entirely out of stock. A very large inventory increase will occur in October.
Apply 12-week Lead Times in your Material Requirements Planning (MRP) Software
Almost all customers who normally use significant (> 1,000/order) volumes of Propeller chips manage their purchasing through an MRP system. MRP software has planning lead times. I strongly suggest you show your Purchasing Manager this post and ask them to put a 12-week lead time in for Propeller chips. While many in the forums will find this practice abhorrent in some ways, I assure you it's common. Once lead times are properly set throughout the supply chain there are fewer production planning issues and lack of supply isn't a surprise. Please enter a proper lead time and allow your MRP to get orders placed before you need the chips.
Why does it seem we're short of Propeller chips?
Because we are short, for two reasons. First, we've had higher orders than expected and some of our customers rely on us without a lead time [please enter a 12-week lead time in your planning system]. Next, we made a minor change in our own MRP system that went unnoticed for over a month. This change set the planning warehouse to a different warehouse than where demand is created. Sometimes we make these changes to make our physical inventory count smoother, like we just did in June (our inventory quantity and dollars were 99.85% accurate). Our Purchasing Manager and IT sorted out the problem and everything is in order again.
Thanks,
Ken Gracey
Comments
There are other distributors that can supply low volume users at this time.
I'm sure thre world will be a peace.
I do hold more than 3 months stock of QFPs for our commercial product. For my hobby products I just buy in blocks and replenish when low.
The fact that you are not physically out of stock is pleasing to note. I guess some have forgotten that you have untested chips and test as required.
And finally, while sometimes it seems the sky is falling I'd like to point out that we've only had one or two similar shortages in prior years. This isn't a common problem, but it is certainly a problem of significance and we welcome the pressure to get it resolved.
Ken Gracey
BTW Ken, would Parallax sell a wafer and if so, what would it cost? I think it would make a fantastic framed showpiece! I presume you don't get single dice as they are likely cut an inserted into the carrier (DIP etc) in one step. I also presume you don't get reject wafers.
A new way to market rejected wafers?
Interested.
Mike
I could only look into this if there were an inquiry coupled with a very high-volume project, not for artwork unfortunately. It's a fair amount of communication, coordination, and modification of processes that run on their own to do this. Possible? Yes! Practical? No.
A single wafer, if we sold it that way, would cost more than the packaged chips. There are no reject wafers that I'm aware of, not even rejected die (we do no wafer probing and only test packaged chips).
Ken Gracey
Might it then be possible to get some die unpackaged? I would suspect there would be a number of Us who would just love to buy one. I guess the same applies... Too costly to organise
Might it then be possible to get some die unpackaged? I would suspect there would be a number of Us who would just love to buy one. I guess the same applies... Too costly to organise
Also not. You see, the wafers go from Austria Microsystems (Linz, Austria) to Greatek Packaging (Taipei, Taiwan). At Greatek, the wafers are sliced and diced, wire-bonded to a package. We're a small customer in both ends of the process and I have no business trying to squeeze in and extract some bare die. The packaging company managers would look at me and ask "really, we're already doing you guys a favor packaging up 100 wafers at a time - now, where is that Propeller 2 we're all waiting on? It's supposed to have the real volume we're all expecting!"
Not only too costly, just not very possible. I've got to save my favors with them for issues that benefit the whole customer base. Know what I mean?
Ken Gracey
Get some fuming nitric acid and have at it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT1FStxAVz4
Okay, I'm kidding. If it were easier with less chance of offing oneself, maybe some process like this could be done for some jewelry pieces and so on. But this doesn't look so easy or predictable, let alone safe. Still, I can see the ad now: For just $24.95 AUD/USD this clear epoxy-encased Propeller can be yours. I'll bet Apple could get away with something like that.
Anyway, that was an informative update from Ken. And it's nice that Parallax is looking out for the little guys while still being responsible to its large customers.
Might be easiest to make a disc sander with 800 wetanddry sandpaper and grind. Might give that a go on my DIP8 when I get home
Randy
www.leashelectronics.com
It's wise to keep a number of electronic parts on hand for any unseen shortages. We haven't seen real shortages for some years.
I recall numerous times when some parts were on 18+ months lead times which blew out from the usual in stock to 18 months within a couple of months. When shortages happen, enterprising!!! people stockpile and then ransom them to the highest bidder.
This doesn't help your problem now though. I suggest you contact Ken Gracey via PM or phone. Perhaps he can help with a few to tide you over.
What package do you use? Perhaps some on the forum have some excess inventory.
Parallax shows In Stock: 1,198 for DIP & Jameco shows QFP Stock 15779 ?
http://www.findchips.com/search/P8X32A-Q44
Massimo
Parallax has failed me as a supplier for my business.
Randy, Give Ken a call at Parallax. They keep these parts in stock for their products that do not show on the product page. Maybe he can help you out.
I have 4 or 5 if that would help you out.
In the morning I can see how many we might have in stock. How many would save your bacon?
I hate to see you in such a pickle.
Cheers,
Peter (pjv)
Apparently my stock shows 98 pieces, and you would be welcome to 90 or even all of them of them if that would help.
Let me know, and we can make some arrangements.
Cheers,
Peter (pjv)
Also, in your MRP system it's a good idea to put us on a 12-week lead time even though we normally have stock. This assures you won't be in the same situation again because your purchasing system will plan ahead according to your build schedule. We've had abnormally high volume lately and every customer has assumed we will hold hundreds of thousands of chips. While we try to do that, surprises will happen and our supply can dwindle very quickly.
Ken Gracey
-Phil
That's a real problem for smaller businesses though...It'd be great if customers would give 16-weeks notice. (12 weeks to obtain the parts plus 4 weeks to finish the goods). They don't.
How will Parallax make these badges if they won't have any QFP chips for a couple of months?
It sounds like the chips are on "allocation" rather than completely out of stock. Orders need to be placed and quantities negotiated through the sales staff rather than just ordering what you need and waiting for the package.
Since they are on allocation, I'm sure Parallax has negotiated supply and demand with itself to make sure chips are available for their projects.