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50,000 Failed Superbowl Computer Simulations — Parallax Forums

50,000 Failed Superbowl Computer Simulations

ercoerco Posts: 20,261
edited 2015-02-02 14:34 in General Discussion
Nice to know that the Machines can't always predict what we "Carbon Infestations" are capable of. Maybe Judgement Day is not inevitable. Yet.

The Predictalator needs a Prop 2 upgrade.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/super-bowl-50000-simulations-one-clear-winner/

Comments

  • bill190bill190 Posts: 769
    edited 2015-02-02 07:40
    Seems to me there is no "input" as to the physical/mental condition of each player.

    Things which can have an effect on playing...

    -Maybe having a fight with the wife the night before and not caring about anything the next day.
    -The onset of an illness.
    -Overdoing it and exhausting oneself the day before.
    -Having a poor nights sleep.
    -Boozing it up the night before or similar activities.
    -Maybe being nervous and due to that not playing in top form.
    -Etc. and so on and so forth...
  • mindrobotsmindrobots Posts: 6,506
    edited 2015-02-02 08:29
    None of the computer simulations probably called a pass play for the Seahawk's *LAST* play of the game.
  • ercoerco Posts: 20,261
    edited 2015-02-02 09:36
    mindrobots wrote: »
    None of the computer simulations probably called a pass play for the Seahawk's *LAST* play of the game.

    So next year, the Predictalator will need to do 50,001 simulations.
  • localrogerlocalroger Posts: 3,452
    edited 2015-02-02 09:52
    The fact that the Predictilator missed this bet doesn't mean there's anything wrong with it. It showed the Seahags with a 57% advantage. That means if you take its advice, it predicts you will lose 43% of the time. That's still a sensible bet to make, but you are not guaranteed to realize your expectation unless you make hundreds of such bets and let the probabilities wash out in the long run.
  • Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi)Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi) Posts: 23,514
    edited 2015-02-02 10:24
    mindrobots wrote:
    None of the computer simulations probably called a pass play for the Seahawk's *LAST* play of the game.
    ... or an offsides penalty while they still had a chance in the last dying seconds with NE in possession in the endzone.

    -Phil
  • Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi)Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi) Posts: 23,514
    edited 2015-02-02 14:34
    This model did a "little bit" better:

    'Kinda scary, really.

    -Phil
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