Propeller Market Sizing and Targets
xtricity
Posts: 25
I'm wondering if there are estimates on Propeller market size projections and targets. I have a sense that they're on the cusp of something bigger and need a little extra to push them to the other side. I don't know too much about the embedded chip design industry. Here are the things that led me to think about this:
- I live in Silicon Valley and read the San Jose Merc.
- I read Dean Takahashi's piece in the Merc on the Hydra. This led me to Parallax, the Basic Stamp and Propeller. I found it interesting that a very small company, Nurve, making a hobbyist product in small quantities could get into a mainstream press outlet like the SJ Merc.
- I drive pass Atmel regularly. I read about George Perlegos and Atmel all the time. This is a company with a market cap of $2.6 billion on sales of $1.6 billion in '05. I realize that Atmel has fabs and is an entirely different company, but I'm just wondering if there's a bigger piece of this market that Parallax is targeting.
- I pick up the Merc and there's a big sticker on the front over the headline for the Embedded Systems Conference with mainstream articles about the rise of embedded systems in everyday life. http://www.mercurynews.com/search/ci_5589730 This was a color spread on one of the main sections of the Merc by Mark Boslet.
- Then, there's another mainstream article by Elise Ackerman of the Merc on robots. http://www.mercurynews.com/search/ci_5648709
So, I'm just kicking back here in the valley reading on this stuff and wondering what the plans for Parallax are. At the very least, it seems possible to push into more mainstream media stories. I know that there's been a couple of articles in ROBOT Magazine and Bill Wong wrote something in Electronic Design Mag back in August. However, it seems to me that there's more opportunity by leverage that 8-core coolness factor, the robotics angle, and the education angle.
Well, enough rambling. Just trying to collect info. BTW, I don't read my email attached to this account very often.
- I live in Silicon Valley and read the San Jose Merc.
- I read Dean Takahashi's piece in the Merc on the Hydra. This led me to Parallax, the Basic Stamp and Propeller. I found it interesting that a very small company, Nurve, making a hobbyist product in small quantities could get into a mainstream press outlet like the SJ Merc.
- I drive pass Atmel regularly. I read about George Perlegos and Atmel all the time. This is a company with a market cap of $2.6 billion on sales of $1.6 billion in '05. I realize that Atmel has fabs and is an entirely different company, but I'm just wondering if there's a bigger piece of this market that Parallax is targeting.
- I pick up the Merc and there's a big sticker on the front over the headline for the Embedded Systems Conference with mainstream articles about the rise of embedded systems in everyday life. http://www.mercurynews.com/search/ci_5589730 This was a color spread on one of the main sections of the Merc by Mark Boslet.
- Then, there's another mainstream article by Elise Ackerman of the Merc on robots. http://www.mercurynews.com/search/ci_5648709
So, I'm just kicking back here in the valley reading on this stuff and wondering what the plans for Parallax are. At the very least, it seems possible to push into more mainstream media stories. I know that there's been a couple of articles in ROBOT Magazine and Bill Wong wrote something in Electronic Design Mag back in August. However, it seems to me that there's more opportunity by leverage that 8-core coolness factor, the robotics angle, and the education angle.
Well, enough rambling. Just trying to collect info. BTW, I don't read my email attached to this account very often.
Comments
intentionally *not* going after the big industrial markets; they seem to like the niche they have. I mean, have you
ever known a company where people have so much sheer fun?
But I agree, there is significant potential there.
[noparse][[/noparse]If I am misrepresenting anything Chip said, I apologize; it was a hectic conference!]
I couldn't agree more - it is an aspect that has intrigued me about Parallax for some time. I have used Parallax products in industrial environments for many years now ... I have also used many other variants of microcontrollers .. but when there is an issue and expediency is one of the key factors I have found myself always opting for the Parallax products - because of sheer speed of development and deployment .. I have a shelf full of custom boards based around the stamps and Propeller - ready for when the call comes in with a problem whereby a fix is needed yesterday - a quick brief on the issue - a board is selected (depending on application) grab the laptop and toolbox then off to site ... problems solved...
While I had many an issue with die hards saying the Stamp was a 'hobby chip' and yet I had many industrial applications based on stamps of all varieties. There was no such response when the Propeller was introduced - many questions and a few puzzled faces said it all ..... had a quiet smile to myself... I think judging by interest from anyone who has encountered the Propeller it will propogate by itself and not require that 'push' .... in short it is something special..
Regards,
Quattro
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'Necessity is the mother of invention'
I suspect that the Propeller, like the SX and Stamps, will make it into more products eventually than you or I can imagine, but they probably won't be high profile items and probably not high volume. Manufacturers will always find a way to make things work cheaply, but adequately (but not really well).
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Programming today is a race between software engineers striving to build bigger and better idiot-proof programs, and the Universe trying to produce bigger and better idiots. So far, the Universe is winning.
Microsoft: "You've got questions. We've got dancing paper clips."
I would love to get the official line here ... It is obvious to us all that the company is customer oriented - what is the long term plan ? The Prop was a large undertaking with spectacular results - Spin Stamp iminent and Prop2 (TurboProp ..??) it is all exciting stuff. With the success of all products to date - is there a fear of things expanding so much that the 'identity' will be lost? The potential here is huge ..
IMO - Parallax is to the world of microcontrollers what Linux is to the world of operating systems....
Regards,
Quattro
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'Necessity is the mother of invention'
Post Edited (QuattroRS4) : 4/19/2007 2:58:49 PM GMT
We've learned from past experience (PIC·from 1990, BASIC Stamp·from 1993, SX·from 1997)·that it takes five years to get a new architecture entrenched in people's minds. LOTS of marketing may speed·it up, but only by a little.
What matters critically to us is that·we are selling a good product and slowly developing mindshare among engineers.
If you guys·are thinking about the Propeller while sitting on the potty, we are succeeding! .....Anyone?
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Chip Gracey
Parallax, Inc.
well then you are succeeding ..!!! thinking while 'Downloading' !!!! ...lol
That just reminded me of the last time I heard toilets mentioned in a discussion about technology ..... very funny -www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjKMhtyI3L8
Regards,
Quattro
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'Necessity is the mother of invention'
Post Edited (QuattroRS4) : 4/19/2007 2:59:40 PM GMT
Dang! There TOO, I must admit. Another place for 'multi-processing'.
Good thinking place.
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Harley Shanko
h.a.s. designn
But seriously, Parallax is an engineering oriented company, not a marketing oriented company like alot of the big guys are. It's not that we aren't seriously targeting industrial applications, its just that throwing a lot of money and energy into marketing produces very little and frequently immeasurable traction in the market. We would rather invest the money into improving existing and creating new products (the "field of dreams" approach).
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Paul Baker
Propeller Applications Engineer
Parallax, Inc.
Post Edited (Paul Baker (Parallax)) : 4/18/2007 9:34:06 PM GMT
Not just there! Not just then!
Sent the file to the PCB-etcher just now for the first part of my first Prop-project.
And discussing with some one about something new. I'll suggest him to throw away what he already got and start from scratch with the Propeller. *MUCH* lower development-time!
BTW:
Are there routines for multiplexing 7-segments already existing?
Nick
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Never use force, just go for a bigger hammer!
The DIY Digital-Readout for mills, lathes etc.:
YADRO
I'm assuming you are thinking of LEDs.
Some years back (way prior to the Prop) I did one with six 7-segment LEDs running around 80 Hz refresh rate combined with a scan routine for 28 switches.
Used also the decimal point segment, so used 8 lines from a PIC which scanned the six common-cathode LEDs, each driven via a FET. If you are interested in the 'interrupt' code I can PM it to you. No reason to waste this forum bandwidth/space. (You'd have to translate PIC to Prop; fairly well commented.)
I'm not aware of any object for n-displays and common cathode/anode.
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Harley Shanko
h.a.s. designn
Post Edited (Harley) : 4/18/2007 9:53:44 PM GMT
I keep a copy of the Propeller manual in my master bathroom.
Chuck
Also guilty as charged... Thinking about duplicating my propeller schematics for my van as well,
(just because I spend so much time on the road during the day.)
Oldbitcollector
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The comments and code above are proof that a million monkeys with a million propeller chips *could* write Shakespeare!
When I read what Chip said it made me think of a story I read about Timber close to the artic circle. It mentioned the trees that where able to grow the farthest north where usually in ravines where the wind was at a minimum. Because they only grew a little per year, they where the hardest wood to cut and made the strongest products when and if you where able to cut them into something. Large fast growth has been the death of many a businness, even though the larger companies take the limelight for fast growth, just as many have gone down trying too much too soon.(Businness in General, not just silicon)
Chip gave specific examples of developer adoption taking 5 years: PIC from 1990, BASIC Stamp from 1993, SX from 1997. This is all good stuff. I'm curious about two things:
1) Pool of potential embedded developers may be growing. The SJ Merc article seemed to indicate that the number of embedded products was growing. Since embedded products are proliferating, the number of programmers may be set for an increase, perhaps more so than with the BASIC Stamp (fairly expensive compared to a PIC) or the SX (not that differentiated from the PIC). The Propeller is an unique product. It might be worthwhile to have a focused campaign to let a wide swath of developers know that it exists. This might not shorten the adoption cycle, but it might increase the size of the developer pool when adoption cycle reaches a more mature level.
2) All of these chip introductions happened before the Internet became as prevalent as it is today. By 1997, the Internet was widespread. However, I don't think that the SX is sufficiently differentiated from the PIC to really warrant a marketing push. Again, the Propeller is different and it is being launched in a different time when online information is by far the most prevalent way for developers to consume any type of information, not just technical information.
Chip and team seem to be spending money on marketing anyway. They've hired a marketing person, Lauren Bares. If she's full-time, that's a significant cost. Considering Chip's involvement with guerilla marketing to developers, having one marketing FTE for a company with 35 people is standard, even for a marketing-driven company. Generally, the marketing FTE would be more senior and thus more expensive, so Parallax is going a little light, but they are not spending that much less than a marketing-driven company. I think someone mentioned that they saw Chip at ESC. This means that they have budget for key trade show booths. ESC is not cheap. They are also spending money producing extremely good product marketing material. Their product information is top-notch. There also appears to be a good customer-reference program with the SX contest and a good program for direct communication with customers with this forum. So, I think that they have an advanced marketing program. Though, they may not think that's it's cool to say so.
Another aspect of marketing is the marketing communications outbound side. This is what people traditionally think of as fluffy marketing. Parallax probably doesn't need too much of this. They may have an online banner ad campaign targeted at developers and may be involved in print advertising in a few key electronics magazines. I don't think they need to spend too much on print advertising. As I indicated earlier, the eyes of their audience have moved online.
The one aspect that Parallax is weak on, IMO is media and analyst relations. Beyond Chip's time, there's not cost to them to talk to reporters. However, I don't think there's any organized outreach program to develop their story, organize a list of influencers and systematically involve them in discussions. To me, this is interesting since it appears that Parallax has a lot to work with.
If I were Chip, I would look at having chats with:
Biz Press: Mark Boslet - Merc; Markoff - NYT; Hamm - BW; just to start of with
Analysts: Nathan Brookwood - Insight64 (in SV); Balacco and Volckmann - VDC
Embedded: Goering - EETimes; Embedded Computing Design - Gipper
Dev: Zeicheck - SDTimes
Others. anyway enough rambling. I better get back to work.
Chip, at our age... just thinking about the Prop makes some of us....--->
I'm not exactly sure that the prop is a cure for constipation... but as an occasional remedy, no doubt.
You might consider marketing the prop for its "medicinal" qualities.
Rich
The day will come when the Prop is being thought about more in the Board Rooms than in the bathrooms. Until then... THIS is a little slice of heaven[noparse]:)[/noparse]
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Parallax Forums - If you're ready to learn, we're ready to help.
You guys thought you might have trouble with the FCC... wait til the FDA hears about you.
Rich