How Much Longer Do You Think Through Hole Technology Will Continue To Exist?
idbruce
Posts: 6,197
As we all know, through hole technology is quickly becoming a thing of the past and being replaced by surface mount. The question I have is how long will through hole components continue to survive.
In addition to my handy dandy diamond blade PCB saw, I have recently developed a very nice tool for through hole prototyping, and I am seriously considering the filing of a new patent application. However it appears that U.S. patent fees have gone up tremendously and the international fees are just outrageous. So over the last week, I have been pondering the dilema of patenting a tool that may soon become obsolete.
In my estimate, I would give the technology another five years, but heck, it almost takes that long to get a patent. However, I could be completely wrong and various types of through hole devices may continue to exist way past five years for the prototyper.
What do you think?
In addition to my handy dandy diamond blade PCB saw, I have recently developed a very nice tool for through hole prototyping, and I am seriously considering the filing of a new patent application. However it appears that U.S. patent fees have gone up tremendously and the international fees are just outrageous. So over the last week, I have been pondering the dilema of patenting a tool that may soon become obsolete.
In my estimate, I would give the technology another five years, but heck, it almost takes that long to get a patent. However, I could be completely wrong and various types of through hole devices may continue to exist way past five years for the prototyper.
What do you think?
Comments
As tools increase to accomodate SMT items, there will be a natural gravitation to SMT boards.
Vacuum tubes: 12ax7, a popular vacuum tube back in its day; readily available.
new vinyl records: quite popular and readily available.
8-track tapes: yup, not a lot, but they're out there.
Edison wax cylinders - they're around, but I'm not finding any new ones.
Typewriter ribbons: No problem! Office Depot!
Whale oil lamps: originals are available, but not seeing any new ones.
Buggy whips: yes, some nice ones.
Flintlock flints... yes again.
Based on that exhaustive research, I'd say that through-hole parts will be around for the indefinite future. Maybe you won't find everything you want new, but plenty of used parts will be around.
It will either be that, or a person wanting to remain upto date will have to purchase the breakout board for the various ICs in DIP form
Even Windows XP is still around and in productive use... despite what Microsoft might prefer.
What!? I was told it goes downhill after 40! If that's true I will be blind before 60!
I think through hole will be around a long, long time. Tubes are still around... Plus there are still lots of components that need to be through hole. There must be billions of through hole components in warehouses around the world, maybe over a trillion.
My glasses have progressive lens, but when I am soldering, I usually just take my glasses off. Since I am near-sighted, it works out well.
Same for reading in bed - take off my glasses and hold the book (or tablet) a bit closer.
I've never tried SMT components - too darn tiny...
There are fewer every day, if this video is for real. Funny, but warning, there is one strong expletive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxGWENAv_oA
The hobbyist market is nowhere near large enough to sustain the manufacturing of through hole parts. It is less than a drop in the bucket. As the manufacturing demand tapers off, production will be cut back until eventually most parts will no longer be available at all. Those that remain in production will be ridiculously expensive.
edit: I'm referring to parts like the more common chips, resistors, caps, LEDs etc. Keep in mind there are many types of parts that don't work well as surface mount. Those will be around for a while.
Thru hole is going nowhere, it will continue to be around forever.
Vias are 'thru holes' and a lot of the SMD parts we design with here, also use holes.
In fact, holes are now preferred on things like SMD connectors, and switches, either for location or more commonly for pure physical strength.
I recently found some new Phoneix Spring-tine terminal Blocks, with pins, and supplied on tape and reel.
These parts allow the strength and reliability of thru hole, but processing in Pick and Place and reflow production lines - the best of both worlds.
As to the second question, it it worth patenting something related to that technology? Bruce, how much time and money have you spent on patents, and how much of your income can be directly attributed to that effort?
To me, life is simply too short to be paranoid about people stealing my stuff. If I've got a worthwhile idea, I'll just make it happen and enjoy whatever proceeds come my way until another idea hits me. The less I have to deal with lawyers and government bureaucrats, the better for my health and mental outlook. One can either be like Gollum, hunkering in a dank cave, protecting his Precioussss, or out enjoying the sunshine. It's your choice to make.
-Phil
Having started soldering as a ten year old, cough..many decades ago, it was only a few weeks ago I tackled soldering my first surface mount components. Starting simple with surface mount LEDs and their current limiting resistors, 604 size. Turned out to be very easy. In fact I would say is was less of a chore than doing the through hole equivalent.
I'm now prepared to believe that soldering chips and other components is not so hard, down to some size at least. There are many vids on YouTube showing how it's done. Like those of David L. Jones on his eevblog. So I'll be giving that a go soon as well.
Where the lack of through hole may be a pain is when wanting to knock up a quick experiment on a bread board where you want to be able to quickly change components or component values around. But that brings us back to those AdaFruit style break out boards.
I seem to recall people complaining about how surface mount was killing electronics as a hobby a decade or so ago. Around about the time hobbyist electronics print magazines disappeared.
Seems to me that in actual fact electronics has a hobby has had a massive revival since then.
P.S. Isn't it ironic that the old and much respected "Wireless World" magazine changed it's name to "Electronics and Wireless World" and then "Electronics World". Just as the term "wireless" becomes common currency again.
If you buy a consumer product, expect it to come as a sealed unit with no interfaces to the hobby/hacker world. But for the market of technological explorers, 0.1 hole spacing with bread-boarding areas will remain available indefinitely.
I don't expect to see another generation of a Propeller in a 40-pin DIP, but there is be boards with through-hole real estate. If you want to use RS-422/485, the bulk of the driver chips remain available in DIP form to allow quick replacement of socketed drivers and receivers when a lightning bolt hits. That is just as it should be. Similarly, spaces for driver chips, DAC, ADC, I2C, and SPI will remain in demand.
What does drive me crazy is the Raspberry Pi and my Cubieboard that have less than 0.1" spacing on their through-hole connectors. To use the GPIO, it seems I have to buy another board to bridge the gap. So it seems that the savy retailers realize that the interface at the edges of the board are pivotal in opening up the archtecture to creativity, so building a moat around one's own pride and joy.
I suppose those are fair questions.
I will skip the one relating to worth of patenting.
As for the second question, I would estimate around $10K, for two patents, not including my labor. The first patent was just a lousy idea that got my feet wet in the patenting process. The second idea had merit and it still does, so the fat lady has not sung yet.
As for the third question, zero income so far, but much of that is my fault and please keep the following in mind:
The main problem with owning a patent is getting your product to market, and unless you have the finances to start your own manufacturing and marketing campaign, you will need a patent to approach major corporations.
In my opinion, there are only so many potential winning lottery tickets that you can get in your lifetime. If an idea has a chance of winning, I certainly want to protect it, because like most people, I want to cross the status lines.
The Raspberry Pi has a standard 0.1 inch spacing pin header for it's GPIO. As does the Cubie no doubt. I can't be sure having never seen one.
This was such a sideways statement I had to check it with my callipers. Sure enough spot on, 0.1 inch.
Where do you get this idea from?
What drives me crazy is the "crooked" line up of the I/O on the Arduino such that it does not match up with a 0.1 inch perf board or bread board. That was a mistake in the original layout that they decided not to fix. And now that crookedness has spread everywhere. Grrr...
I shake my head a little, more at the build as a whole rather than the use of through-hole, but the equipment does do it's job rather well. So management stick with what they know works.
I won't say what it is, the market isn't very big and I do respect the manufacturer.
I converted most of my designs to SMT several years ago BUT my eyes didn't like it SO I use a biology 20X dual eye piece microscope. It is the type use for taking frogs and such apart but works great trying to examine (pre-etch) boards and to assemble (solder those little parts).
I would also suggest that you get a small paint spray box (not for paint) so when you drop those little parts they are not lost.
I still have TRAYS of TTL through-hole chips, so I believe that warehouse companies will also stock them.
I have TRAYS of inductors, caps and 1/4 & 1/2 watt resistors. They will also be available through warehouse companies for a while.
BUT when things get limited, go to GOODWILL, purchase an old TUBE based TV for $1 (average price), and strip it of parts.
I only have 4 remaining TUBE based items (record player, heathkit-VTVM, heathkit-frequency-counter, and healthkit-single-channel-O-scope), of which I have no spare tubes, but all units are still working. I do have a tube-tester, but It would b harder to find tubes unless you check for Russian stock.
I have a 1952 Chevy that I still can find engine parts for but the 5000 tube radio had to go (AM only and the local oscillation drifted more than a phoenix dust storm).
Well, my Cubieboard doesn't have 0.1 inch spacing. I have spent quite a bit of time looking for a solution to wiring into the GPIO but nothing quite right. It is something smaller, and closer. I tried locating ribbon cables and other connectors to adapt, but nothing will do it easily.
I guess I am wrong about the Raspberry Pi. I thought it was similar to the Cubieboard in this respect.
++++++++++
The main thing here is that the 0.1 inch spacing allows one to use headers and cables to wire into the board. Arduino has pretty much established a defacto method of modularity for all sorts of add-ons via patch cables.
And yes, Arduino seemed to have put a twist into its use of 0.1" spacing... just so we all have to buy their boards. They claim it was a mistake, but I do wonder.
Given that the Arduino design is open source and anyone can make one, and any one does. And anyone can make boards that mate with it. You have no reason do wonder if it was a mistake or not.
Both TI and NXP make no bones about offering DIP versions of their more strategic chips just for prototyping.
You should have been born 120 years ago, idbruce. Nowadays, the notion of a self-taught lone inventor getting rich off a patent is pretty much a joke, especially in a very mature field like PCBs. It really is like buying a lottery ticket...Only the ticket costs $10000. But the odds are still just as poor.
-Phil
I will try to add solder-paste-adapter for my new Cube 3D printer,
I will also add mini pick&place features, no I will not patent it but keep in under wrap and flood the market fast as to get a foothold before copies start showing up.
When you soon can print your pcb (with carbon ink) and also print your solder paste, emerging technology like this will make through-hole obsolete and a very small niche market not worthy of patents.