I guess I'm not sure what you mean by they aren't managing airspace. Anyway sure things will change in the future, I get that. Maybe people will be flying sub $10k "drones" in 2015 commercially, maybe, but not like Amazon is making it out to be.
Time to kick the tires and light the fires! Beautiful day here
Sorry if I am coming on strong on this topic.
I dealt with the FAA on a number of levels and the organization has needed an overhaul for decades.
The coming demand for increase usage of airspace is going to rattle their cage to the core.
An example is the increase usage of unmanned flight in the military...if you know anyone who works the flight lines, ask them how the implementation of drones has affected the Air Force.
I read something last week about this that sounds like it could be the real deal. Bezos pulled off an advertising coup with this "announcement" of the "plans to use drones to deliver Amazon packages". It's just a publicity stunt. He does an interview, with a slick (but short - perfect for a news segment) video. He has gotten literally millions of free advertising for it - just in time for Cyber Monday, Tuesday, etc... I don't think he really has any intention of pursuing this. This type of delivery will never happen - way too many obstacles. Even if they could somehow get licensed by the FAA, the liability would be insurmountable.
I can see photography applications. The government (cops) will use them because they can't be sued. Of course the military. Maybe traffic reporting - much cheaper than a talking head riding around in an expensive helicopter flown by an expensive pilot. I'm a pilot, too, and can see the possibilities. I have at last count 3 quadcopters.
Delivering pizzas and packages - never happen.
Edit: As you can see, my GPS coordinates are in my location tag, so you can come over and flame me with your drones... :-)
Edit again: Or bring me a pizza - Pepperoni with green olives. Thin crust.
I read something last week about this that sounds like it could be the real deal. Bezos pulled off an advertising coup with this "announcement" of the "plans to use drones to deliver Amazon packages". It's just a publicity stunt. He does an interview, with a slick (but short - perfect for a news segment) video. He has gotten literally millions of free advertising for it - just in time for Cyber Monday, Tuesday, etc... I don't think he really has any intention of pursuing this. This type of delivery will never happen - way too many obstacles. Even if they could somehow get licensed by the FAA, the liability would be insurmountable.
I can see photography applications. The government (cops) will use them because they can't be sued. Of course the military. Maybe traffic reporting - much cheaper than a talking head riding around in an expensive helicopter flown by an expensive pilot. I'm a pilot, too, and can see the possibilities. I have at last count 3 quadcopters.
Delivering pizzas and packages - never happen.
Edit: As you can see, my GPS coordinates are in my location tag, so you can come over and flame me with your drones... :-)
Edit again: Or bring me a pizza - Pepperoni with green olives. Thin crust.
All excellent points.
If my foamy UAS would fly okay at 8000'msl, have enough battery to get there, and survive the weather, I punched in your coords in hardware in loop mode. Your virtual pizza will be there in five days, give or take.
Ahh, 16 below zero this morning. Gonna be colder tonight, with snow starting later and continuing thru Monday morning. Hope you got enough battery to keep that puppy hot! By Thursday, we will have a heat wave - all the way up to 16 ABOVE zero. Oh, well, we can make it a take 'n bake frozen one. ;-)
I read something last week about this that sounds like it could be the real deal. Bezos pulled off an advertising coup with this "announcement" of the "plans to use drones to deliver Amazon packages". It's just a publicity stunt. He does an interview, with a slick (but short - perfect for a news segment) video. He has gotten literally millions of free advertising for it - just in time for Cyber Monday, Tuesday, etc... I don't think he really has any intention of pursuing this. This type of delivery will never happen - way too many obstacles. Even if they could somehow get licensed by the FAA, the liability would be insurmountable.
I can see photography applications. The government (cops) will use them because they can't be sued. Of course the military. Maybe traffic reporting - much cheaper than a talking head riding around in an expensive helicopter flown by an expensive pilot. I'm a pilot, too, and can see the possibilities. I have at last count 3 quadcopters.
Delivering pizzas and packages - never happen.
Edit: As you can see, my GPS coordinates are in my location tag, so you can come over and flame me with your drones... :-)
Edit again: Or bring me a pizza - Pepperoni with green olives. Thin crust.
"advertising coup with this "announcement" of the "plans to use drones to deliver Amazon packages". "
"It's just a publicity stunt."
" He does an interview, with a slick (but short - perfect for a news segment) video. "
"He has gotten literally millions of free advertising for it - just in time for Cyber Monday, "
LOL..anyone for sour grapes from the competitors of Amazon?
Reality is that Amazon is mopping the floor with the competition to the tune of BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars.
And that a number of areospace companies are in talks NOW with Amazon to make that drone delivery a reality in our lifetimes.
Meanwhile the FAA is NOW working out the details for drone operation in United State's airspace within the next few years.
I think this idea of using drones to deliver stuff will ultimately not happen at all, or will not happen until a sound plan is put into place for flight patterns and specific roadways. I'd call them airways for lack of a better term.
When the first cars were produced, there weren't many roads to drive on. Luckily they were slow, because that's what enabled people to get out of the way when someone was driving wherever he/she pleased.
When airplanes came on the scene, the same problem reared it's head. Where to fly them? How to organize "flying" in such a way as to minimize risk? Presto, we got airports and a slew of other stuff. They fly overhead all the time, but it's rare to fly at such a low altitude as to eliminate the possibility of "gliding" to someplace safe to land. Sure, it happens... but we're talking minutes of response time due to altitude in most cases. With a drone carrying a pizza at 300 ft we're talking seconds. And not much chance of falling in a "convenient" spot.
So, the flying drone delivery idea has an even more difficult requirement to meet. Share air space over top of existing roadways? That defeats the benefit of "as the crow flies" travel times, but might be doable.
Fly them over homes, schools, daycares, etc? Just wait until one flops and cuts the head off a child.
Airplanes not only have dedicated flight paths and support structures, they're also (generally speaking) too high and too fast to be messed with. And of course, even the dumbest of people have enough sense to realize it could kill lots of people if it were messed with.
Flying drones won't have this kind of respect, at first. Kids will attempt to throw balls of string into the rotors, and weirdo's will plink at them with a Ruger 10-22 for sh*ts and giggles. And who knows what else.
Ground traversing drones just might be possible within a few years, if they start working on "drone lanes" or share "bike lanes." There's still a hefty challenge to overcome though.
Nobody knew what to do with 1.44MB years ago. It doesn't matter what Amazon says, we know they have the money and technology to build a drone. The last thing they would do is show some early prototype that reveals IP, if they have one.
There are other factors than the drone-
1. The FAA
2. People
3. Accidents
4. 2015 Realistic?
5. Delivery zone
#1: Says they're working on a system to make it happen, and they will. It's not going to be for everyone. Could it be for Amazon? Sure, but FAA is not the only factor.
#2: People are not going to like this. I can tell you from years of experience you need to use real finesse to pull it off.
#3: Is NTSB coming in to make drone manufacturers create new airworthiness directives? How many drones will malfunction at what rate? There will be drone accidents and failures. They have mentioned the word redundancy but real aircraft have that already and look at statistics.
#4: 2015? Nothing happens that fast, it would have to be done already. Takes a long time to roll out procedures and do all the training. I have been looking at the drone pilot ratings available to commercial pilots and their studies can not include regs that do not exist. So for there to be commercial drone pilots in 2015 they would need that training before 2015 and that training does not exist. Yeah it might be a three month endorsement, but you have to train the people who are going to train the people as well. Easily a year. You can't just call air traffic control and say you're flying a drone and need clearance through controlled airspace without all kinds of training in all kinds of agencies. Not happening in one year, perhaps on an extremely limited basis for the reasons of developing training.
#5: How does this work? You can only get a delivery in your own back yard dropped from 20'? I can see something like that small scale, but would my neighbors like it? What about HOA complaints? RC fields have been closed due to HOA complaints everywhere. What sensors will detect the family of birds living in the satellite dish mount?
Oh speaking of birds they love to attack copters! The birds will not allow this lol... If you fly a copter by a tree with a bird nest in it and the parents around around you will see the get pretty upset. It's not something that drones will be able to handle well.
The debate is not on technology or can Amazon do it, the debate exists in a far less technical and ironically grey area. A variable not one of us can predict. Nobody knows what will happen. The drones will be in for a fight with the population. People will make wild claims about rouge drones taking them out for a night on the town then dropping them off over a lake somewhere.
"LOL..anyone for sour grapes from the competitors of Amazon?"
I'm in no way a competitor of Amazon. Indeed, I buy LOTS of stuff from them. I was just admiring Bezo's genius marketing by giving that interview on the day before Cyber Monday.
"Reality is that Amazon is mopping the floor with the competition to the tune of BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars."
True, I agree.
"And that a number of areospace companies are in talks NOW with Amazon to make that drone delivery a reality in our lifetimes."
I reiterate, never happen. Not that it isn't possible, just not at all practical.
"Meanwhile the FAA is NOW working out the details for drone operation in United State's airspace within the next few years."
Yup, you're right, but not for pizza (or any kind of package) delivery. Just wait til you see the kind of operations that the FAA will "approve". :-)
Well, if the USA integrates the Drone airspace in the USA with the cellular grid, law enforcement might be very happy. Delivery of packages might have to take a back seat.
Absolutely, exactily what I was referring to. It's all about rules. But the rules say you don't fly below a certain altitude over populated areas. That altitude is much higher than it would be practical to fly a drone - let alone the additional traffic it would create. So the drones would have to fly at a much lower altitude, as Rforbes says, around 300' or even lower. Now you have the prospect of hundreds or even thousands of these flying helter-skelter. or you could have "lanes" but then it would greatly increase the possiblity of collision just because of the higher density. Even a 7 or 8 lb object falling from 300' is going to have enough energy to kill or maim. I just don't see any governing body allowing that to happen.
Even a 7 or 8 lb object falling from 300' is going to have enough energy to kill or maim. I just don't see any governing body allowing that to happen.
Don, I've been asked about this possibility at least a dozen times since last week. You could imagine how many people cornered me to ask questions about this being a real possibility. Though I so badly want to be a positive futurist and a part of the drone delivery mix, I'm 100% in agreement with your statements above. Yes, it's possible, but entirely impractical, potentially dangerous, and would require significant control.
I know a City Counsel that would embrace the opportunity to charge thousands of dollars for a permit to fly your drone over anything in the city,
and would in fact offer the opportunity to expedite your permit process if you will pay double the fee..
They would not be bothered by the danger, and would most likely only require an insurance policy, and that of course will also be obtained with Dollars$$$
You will see Drones over your city, give it some time, and more important, some Dollars to the City Counsel...
Okay.... forget the package delivery. But I will try to be a bit visionary about what drones can do in the airspace above the USA.
Drones are great for aerial survey. And as I mentioned above... integration with cellular grids can provide both live feed and remote navigation for all sorts of tasks that are either now neglected due to cost effectiveness or just never considered.
Municipal governments can do flyover surveys of city infrastructure to manage local projects.
Crisis management can be done with rapid deployment of units avialable to local law enforcement or rescue workers. (Maybe get some Federal grants to purchase units.)
Local weather dangers, such as tule fog (a killer in the Central Valley of California) or black ice can be observed without having to install static video cams.
Farmers can view crop damage in real time and mitigate quickly rather than send out eyes on the ground and wait for them to travel, appraise, and call.
Foresters can do preliminar timber cruising (assessment of lumber inventory in standing timber) in areas that are extremely difficult to reach on foot.
Rescue works can get closer to victims to determine how severe their injuries are and how risky the actual approach to a rescue might be.
Bridge infrastructs can be inspected without a hazardous climb on the underside of bridges.
Insurance assement of actual damage can be enhanced (Like hail damage assessment to large greenhouse complexs)
Sure ... one might be able to do some of this with conventional aerial surveys or with Google satalite images, but there are situations where the quadcopter can fly lower and with both less hazard and less cost if it is managed right. So I am pretty sure that a quad-copter survey industry will evole for the best of reasons... it is cost effective and the right solution for aerial survey that need results quickly and for small tasks.
So. I suppose the best thing would be for Parallax to get into proactive involvement with the FAA on opening opportunities that are a win-win for everyone.
Agree wholeheartedly with all above. In fact, some of that is already being done, albiet somewhat "illegally". Ken is taking the cautiously optimistic approach. Tommy's observation about the $$$ to governing bodies is also valid, but I think the ultimate rule maker will be the FAA.
If a "drone" is to be used commercially, it will have to be type certificated - read HUGE BUCKS. All of the parts will have to be "approved", redundancy will be mandatory and so on.
Any commercial venture that uses these highly expensive devices will have to be hugely profitable - at the hugely inflated prices they will have to charge to cover all of the government-mandated "safety".
I have a friend who is a commercial photographer. He is also a pilot and experimental airplane builder as I am. He looked into using a quad/hex/octocopter for photography of buildings for sale, local golf courses for "flybys" and so forth. He didn't feel that he would be profitable with the cost of the currently available crop of machines, let alone what will happen when the FAA gets hold of it, not to speak of the cost of insurance - if he could even get it.
I gave up on finding a side business with my equipment, too. My big worry is that the whole "hobby" end if it will be ruined. Hopefully, we will still be able to use our quads in our own backyards and local RC flying fields.
Well, the whole drone may have to be certified with a lot of red tape. But the core issue is whether a Parallax Propeller will be a contender for a CPU of choice. It has always seemed to me that the Propeller 1 was the ideal device for handling the flight control. The Propeller 2 may be even better.
But waiting around for Washington, D.C. to resolve something might be glacial. Having a lobby for private drone contract service might be a good thing. I also suspect that the FAA might be conflicted with the fact that the US military has their own drone agenda that wants their own piece of the sky first and foremost.
DO we need a world with FAA Drone Traffic Controllers? It could get into tons of redundant overlay unless someone has the vision to do it all through cellular phone towers.
There remains a big chunk of traffic management technology to resolve.
I have to say, I LOVE the idea of it all. I keep picturing something like a city that was in The 5th Element with stuff flying around everywhere.
But no matter how good the technology becomes, there is NO technology that can counter the effects of gravity, acceleration and velocity when a flying object goes haywire. Whether it's a flying plane, a flying sausage, or a pegasus, it's coming down eventually. We can mitigate the problem to some degree- designs that allow for un-powered gliding, big ole parachutes that pop out as a failsafe, helium balloons that immediately inflate to keep it aloft, etc. etc. But it *is* going to come down. If we can get either guarantee it'll come down where no one can get hurt, or it'll come down where no one is supposed to be hanging out, then there might be a chance of it coming to fruition.
I'mma go start working on my helicopter helium balloon inflation package right now. I'll call it Heli-ummmm (TM)
ABC's Nightline mentioned that the drone industry is now projected to be at $85 BILLION dollars in 2025 with a workforce of over 100,000 jobs with major areospace companies now setting up divisions within their companies to develop the technology.
"LOL..anyone for sour grapes from the competitors of Amazon?"
I'm in no way a competitor of Amazon. Indeed, I buy LOTS of stuff from them. I was just admiring Bezo's genius marketing by giving that interview on the day before Cyber Monday.
"Reality is that Amazon is mopping the floor with the competition to the tune of BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars."
True, I agree.
"And that a number of areospace companies are in talks NOW with Amazon to make that drone delivery a reality in our lifetimes."
I reiterate, never happen. Not that it isn't possible, just not at all practical.
"Meanwhile the FAA is NOW working out the details for drone operation in United State's airspace within the next few years."
Yup, you're right, but not for pizza (or any kind of package) delivery. Just wait til you see the kind of operations that the FAA will "approve". :-)
My comment about sour grapes was directed towards the talking points you were listing..the fourth time I had seen them mentioned on the Interenet.
Absolutely, exactily what I was referring to. It's all about rules. But the rules say you don't fly below a certain altitude over populated areas. That altitude is much higher than it would be practical to fly a drone - let alone the additional traffic it would create. So the drones would have to fly at a much lower altitude, as Rforbes says, around 300' or even lower. Now you have the prospect of hundreds or even thousands of these flying helter-skelter. or you could have "lanes" but then it would greatly increase the possiblity of collision just because of the higher density. Even a 7 or 8 lb object falling from 300' is going to have enough energy to kill or maim. I just don't see any governing body allowing that to happen.
And yet manned aircraft and birds fly over head every day..all weighing more than 5 pounds...with no problem.
Well, the whole drone may have to be certified with a lot of red tape. But the core issue is whether a Parallax Propeller will be a contender for a CPU of choice. It has always seemed to me that the Propeller 1 was the ideal device for handling the flight control. The Propeller 2 may be even better.
But waiting around for Washington, D.C. to resolve something might be glacial. Having a lobby for private drone contract service might be a good thing. I also suspect that the FAA might be conflicted with the fact that the US military has their own drone agenda that wants their own piece of the sky first and foremost.
DO we need a world with FAA Drone Traffic Controllers? It could get into tons of redundant overlay unless someone has the vision to do it all through cellular phone towers.
There remains a big chunk of traffic management technology to resolve.
I agree traffic management is where the development work is at...and that is why the FAA is setting up test sites by the end of the year to acquire information that will lead to that development.
George Orwell must be gleefully smirking from out of his grave.... more than 1984 could ever imagine.
I look out the window of my Starbucks where I have may morning latte and the intersection is covered by no less that 7 separate video cameras. Sure, there is a major hospital diagonally across the street, but nothing much is really happening there.
I am sure there will be a lot of interesting governmental applications ... maybe too many.
George Orwell must be gleefully smirking from out of his grave.... more than 1984 could ever imagine.
I look out the window of my Starbucks where I have may morning latte and the intersection is covered by no less that 7 separate video cameras. Sure, there is a major hospital diagonally across the street, but nothing much is really happening there.
I am sure there will be a lot of interesting governmental applications ... maybe too many.
Yes..I have thought the same and considered 1984's senario.
Considering that Snowden's recent revelation that the USA can track any cell phone's location anywhere in the world along with any conversation it has, 1984 makes for an interesting possibility.
Compared to that impressive achievement, automous drone capability is rather a simple side chapter of today's application of technology.
Okay.... forget the package delivery. But I will try to be a bit visionary about what drones can do in the airspace above the USA.
Drones are great for aerial survey. And as I mentioned above... integration with cellular grids can provide both live feed and remote navigation for all sorts of tasks that are either now neglected due to cost effectiveness or just never considered.
Municipal governments can do flyover surveys of city infrastructure to manage local projects.
Crisis management can be done with rapid deployment of units avialable to local law enforcement or rescue workers. (Maybe get some Federal grants to purchase units.)
Local weather dangers, such as tule fog (a killer in the Central Valley of California) or black ice can be observed without having to install static video cams.
Farmers can view crop damage in real time and mitigate quickly rather than send out eyes on the ground and wait for them to travel, appraise, and call.
Foresters can do preliminar timber cruising (assessment of lumber inventory in standing timber) in areas that are extremely difficult to reach on foot.
Rescue works can get closer to victims to determine how severe their injuries are and how risky the actual approach to a rescue might be.
Bridge infrastructs can be inspected without a hazardous climb on the underside of bridges.
Insurance assement of actual damage can be enhanced (Like hail damage assessment to large greenhouse complexs)
Sure ... one might be able to do some of this with conventional aerial surveys or with Google satalite images, but there are situations where the quadcopter can fly lower and with both less hazard and less cost if it is managed right. So I am pretty sure that a quad-copter survey industry will evole for the best of reasons... it is cost effective and the right solution for aerial survey that need results quickly and for small tasks.
So. I suppose the best thing would be for Parallax to get into proactive involvement with the FAA on opening opportunities that are a win-win for everyone.
As for upcoming business opportunties for Parallax in the drone market, I would expect their sensor offerings to be more likely a success than their processor line would be.
In the military drone development that I am familar with, the money has been in the ongoing sensor development and its fusion.
I suspect that in the transfer of military tech to civilian usage, the existing algorithms and software will leverage the underlying processor architecture...rarely is software transferable from one processor to another since each has their unique properties.
In respect to the Parallax Propellor architecture (which I do admire), its uniqueness is also its undoing...that uniqueness makes direct transference of software almost impossible to other processor systems.
Comments
Sorry if I am coming on strong on this topic.
I dealt with the FAA on a number of levels and the organization has needed an overhaul for decades.
The coming demand for increase usage of airspace is going to rattle their cage to the core.
An example is the increase usage of unmanned flight in the military...if you know anyone who works the flight lines, ask them how the implementation of drones has affected the Air Force.
I can see photography applications. The government (cops) will use them because they can't be sued. Of course the military. Maybe traffic reporting - much cheaper than a talking head riding around in an expensive helicopter flown by an expensive pilot. I'm a pilot, too, and can see the possibilities. I have at last count 3 quadcopters.
Delivering pizzas and packages - never happen.
Edit: As you can see, my GPS coordinates are in my location tag, so you can come over and flame me with your drones... :-)
Edit again: Or bring me a pizza - Pepperoni with green olives. Thin crust.
All excellent points.
If my foamy UAS would fly okay at 8000'msl, have enough battery to get there, and survive the weather, I punched in your coords in hardware in loop mode. Your virtual pizza will be there in five days, give or take.
"advertising coup with this "announcement" of the "plans to use drones to deliver Amazon packages". "
"It's just a publicity stunt."
" He does an interview, with a slick (but short - perfect for a news segment) video. "
"He has gotten literally millions of free advertising for it - just in time for Cyber Monday, "
LOL..anyone for sour grapes from the competitors of Amazon?
Reality is that Amazon is mopping the floor with the competition to the tune of BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars.
And that a number of areospace companies are in talks NOW with Amazon to make that drone delivery a reality in our lifetimes.
Meanwhile the FAA is NOW working out the details for drone operation in United State's airspace within the next few years.
When the first cars were produced, there weren't many roads to drive on. Luckily they were slow, because that's what enabled people to get out of the way when someone was driving wherever he/she pleased.
When airplanes came on the scene, the same problem reared it's head. Where to fly them? How to organize "flying" in such a way as to minimize risk? Presto, we got airports and a slew of other stuff. They fly overhead all the time, but it's rare to fly at such a low altitude as to eliminate the possibility of "gliding" to someplace safe to land. Sure, it happens... but we're talking minutes of response time due to altitude in most cases. With a drone carrying a pizza at 300 ft we're talking seconds. And not much chance of falling in a "convenient" spot.
So, the flying drone delivery idea has an even more difficult requirement to meet. Share air space over top of existing roadways? That defeats the benefit of "as the crow flies" travel times, but might be doable.
Fly them over homes, schools, daycares, etc? Just wait until one flops and cuts the head off a child.
Airplanes not only have dedicated flight paths and support structures, they're also (generally speaking) too high and too fast to be messed with. And of course, even the dumbest of people have enough sense to realize it could kill lots of people if it were messed with.
Flying drones won't have this kind of respect, at first. Kids will attempt to throw balls of string into the rotors, and weirdo's will plink at them with a Ruger 10-22 for sh*ts and giggles. And who knows what else.
Ground traversing drones just might be possible within a few years, if they start working on "drone lanes" or share "bike lanes." There's still a hefty challenge to overcome though.
If you are willing to break the law by shooting at a drone then you are probably willing to break the law to own the gun.
There are other factors than the drone-
1. The FAA
2. People
3. Accidents
4. 2015 Realistic?
5. Delivery zone
#1: Says they're working on a system to make it happen, and they will. It's not going to be for everyone. Could it be for Amazon? Sure, but FAA is not the only factor.
#2: People are not going to like this. I can tell you from years of experience you need to use real finesse to pull it off.
#3: Is NTSB coming in to make drone manufacturers create new airworthiness directives? How many drones will malfunction at what rate? There will be drone accidents and failures. They have mentioned the word redundancy but real aircraft have that already and look at statistics.
#4: 2015? Nothing happens that fast, it would have to be done already. Takes a long time to roll out procedures and do all the training. I have been looking at the drone pilot ratings available to commercial pilots and their studies can not include regs that do not exist. So for there to be commercial drone pilots in 2015 they would need that training before 2015 and that training does not exist. Yeah it might be a three month endorsement, but you have to train the people who are going to train the people as well. Easily a year. You can't just call air traffic control and say you're flying a drone and need clearance through controlled airspace without all kinds of training in all kinds of agencies. Not happening in one year, perhaps on an extremely limited basis for the reasons of developing training.
#5: How does this work? You can only get a delivery in your own back yard dropped from 20'? I can see something like that small scale, but would my neighbors like it? What about HOA complaints? RC fields have been closed due to HOA complaints everywhere. What sensors will detect the family of birds living in the satellite dish mount?
Oh speaking of birds they love to attack copters! The birds will not allow this lol... If you fly a copter by a tree with a bird nest in it and the parents around around you will see the get pretty upset. It's not something that drones will be able to handle well.
The debate is not on technology or can Amazon do it, the debate exists in a far less technical and ironically grey area. A variable not one of us can predict. Nobody knows what will happen. The drones will be in for a fight with the population. People will make wild claims about rouge drones taking them out for a night on the town then dropping them off over a lake somewhere.
I'm in no way a competitor of Amazon. Indeed, I buy LOTS of stuff from them. I was just admiring Bezo's genius marketing by giving that interview on the day before Cyber Monday.
"Reality is that Amazon is mopping the floor with the competition to the tune of BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars."
True, I agree.
"And that a number of areospace companies are in talks NOW with Amazon to make that drone delivery a reality in our lifetimes."
I reiterate, never happen. Not that it isn't possible, just not at all practical.
"Meanwhile the FAA is NOW working out the details for drone operation in United State's airspace within the next few years."
Yup, you're right, but not for pizza (or any kind of package) delivery. Just wait til you see the kind of operations that the FAA will "approve". :-)
Don, I've been asked about this possibility at least a dozen times since last week. You could imagine how many people cornered me to ask questions about this being a real possibility. Though I so badly want to be a positive futurist and a part of the drone delivery mix, I'm 100% in agreement with your statements above. Yes, it's possible, but entirely impractical, potentially dangerous, and would require significant control.
and would in fact offer the opportunity to expedite your permit process if you will pay double the fee..
They would not be bothered by the danger, and would most likely only require an insurance policy, and that of course will also be obtained with Dollars$$$
You will see Drones over your city, give it some time, and more important, some Dollars to the City Counsel...
-Tommy
Drones are great for aerial survey. And as I mentioned above... integration with cellular grids can provide both live feed and remote navigation for all sorts of tasks that are either now neglected due to cost effectiveness or just never considered.
Municipal governments can do flyover surveys of city infrastructure to manage local projects.
Crisis management can be done with rapid deployment of units avialable to local law enforcement or rescue workers. (Maybe get some Federal grants to purchase units.)
Local weather dangers, such as tule fog (a killer in the Central Valley of California) or black ice can be observed without having to install static video cams.
Farmers can view crop damage in real time and mitigate quickly rather than send out eyes on the ground and wait for them to travel, appraise, and call.
Foresters can do preliminar timber cruising (assessment of lumber inventory in standing timber) in areas that are extremely difficult to reach on foot.
Rescue works can get closer to victims to determine how severe their injuries are and how risky the actual approach to a rescue might be.
Bridge infrastructs can be inspected without a hazardous climb on the underside of bridges.
Insurance assement of actual damage can be enhanced (Like hail damage assessment to large greenhouse complexs)
Sure ... one might be able to do some of this with conventional aerial surveys or with Google satalite images, but there are situations where the quadcopter can fly lower and with both less hazard and less cost if it is managed right. So I am pretty sure that a quad-copter survey industry will evole for the best of reasons... it is cost effective and the right solution for aerial survey that need results quickly and for small tasks.
So. I suppose the best thing would be for Parallax to get into proactive involvement with the FAA on opening opportunities that are a win-win for everyone.
If a "drone" is to be used commercially, it will have to be type certificated - read HUGE BUCKS. All of the parts will have to be "approved", redundancy will be mandatory and so on.
Any commercial venture that uses these highly expensive devices will have to be hugely profitable - at the hugely inflated prices they will have to charge to cover all of the government-mandated "safety".
I have a friend who is a commercial photographer. He is also a pilot and experimental airplane builder as I am. He looked into using a quad/hex/octocopter for photography of buildings for sale, local golf courses for "flybys" and so forth. He didn't feel that he would be profitable with the cost of the currently available crop of machines, let alone what will happen when the FAA gets hold of it, not to speak of the cost of insurance - if he could even get it.
I gave up on finding a side business with my equipment, too. My big worry is that the whole "hobby" end if it will be ruined. Hopefully, we will still be able to use our quads in our own backyards and local RC flying fields.
But waiting around for Washington, D.C. to resolve something might be glacial. Having a lobby for private drone contract service might be a good thing. I also suspect that the FAA might be conflicted with the fact that the US military has their own drone agenda that wants their own piece of the sky first and foremost.
DO we need a world with FAA Drone Traffic Controllers? It could get into tons of redundant overlay unless someone has the vision to do it all through cellular phone towers.
There remains a big chunk of traffic management technology to resolve.
But no matter how good the technology becomes, there is NO technology that can counter the effects of gravity, acceleration and velocity when a flying object goes haywire. Whether it's a flying plane, a flying sausage, or a pegasus, it's coming down eventually. We can mitigate the problem to some degree- designs that allow for un-powered gliding, big ole parachutes that pop out as a failsafe, helium balloons that immediately inflate to keep it aloft, etc. etc. But it *is* going to come down. If we can get either guarantee it'll come down where no one can get hurt, or it'll come down where no one is supposed to be hanging out, then there might be a chance of it coming to fruition.
I'mma go start working on my helicopter helium balloon inflation package right now. I'll call it Heli-ummmm (TM)
ABC's Nightline mentioned that the drone industry is now projected to be at $85 BILLION dollars in 2025 with a workforce of over 100,000 jobs with major areospace companies now setting up divisions within their companies to develop the technology.
My comment about sour grapes was directed towards the talking points you were listing..the fourth time I had seen them mentioned on the Interenet.
And yet manned aircraft and birds fly over head every day..all weighing more than 5 pounds...with no problem.
I agree traffic management is where the development work is at...and that is why the FAA is setting up test sites by the end of the year to acquire information that will lead to that development.
The Drones are coming to an airspace near you....
I look out the window of my Starbucks where I have may morning latte and the intersection is covered by no less that 7 separate video cameras. Sure, there is a major hospital diagonally across the street, but nothing much is really happening there.
I am sure there will be a lot of interesting governmental applications ... maybe too many.
Yes..I have thought the same and considered 1984's senario.
Considering that Snowden's recent revelation that the USA can track any cell phone's location anywhere in the world along with any conversation it has, 1984 makes for an interesting possibility.
Compared to that impressive achievement, automous drone capability is rather a simple side chapter of today's application of technology.
As for upcoming business opportunties for Parallax in the drone market, I would expect their sensor offerings to be more likely a success than their processor line would be.
In the military drone development that I am familar with, the money has been in the ongoing sensor development and its fusion.
I suspect that in the transfer of military tech to civilian usage, the existing algorithms and software will leverage the underlying processor architecture...rarely is software transferable from one processor to another since each has their unique properties.
In respect to the Parallax Propellor architecture (which I do admire), its uniqueness is also its undoing...that uniqueness makes direct transference of software almost impossible to other processor systems.