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International Space Station may face a fiery demise in Earth's atmosphere in 2020 — Parallax Forums

International Space Station may face a fiery demise in Earth's atmosphere in 2020

Ron CzapalaRon Czapala Posts: 2,418
edited 2013-08-18 14:38 in General Discussion
http://news.yahoo.com/international-space-station-really-last-beyond-2020-222429165.html
While discussions are underway to extend the lifetime of the $100 billion-plus International Space Station beyond 2020, there is concern about the station's overall usefulness and price tag to operate, so much so the station may face a fiery demise in Earth's atmosphere at the end of the present decade.

Also at issue is whether an unraveling of the 15-nation partnership driving the space station program is afoot — a collaboration that is being viewed by cash-strapped countries as too costly and politically a hard-to-sell project.
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Comments

  • Martin_HMartin_H Posts: 4,051
    edited 2013-08-14 19:26
    There's the more general problem of what are they doing up there? I suppose building it helped foster international collaboration, but tooling around in low earth orbit isn't all that exciting.
  • xanatosxanatos Posts: 1,120
    edited 2013-08-14 19:29
    Maybe Elan Musk or Richard Branson can buy it at fire-sale prices.... What a fantastic development lab for their next-level business models. Space vacations? Space hotels? I know I'd pay for a day in orbit.... but then again, I'm still figuring out how to budget for a new car, so...
  • ercoerco Posts: 20,256
    edited 2013-08-14 20:38
    Martin_H wrote: »
    ... but tooling around in low earth orbit isn't all that exciting.

    Ewww, M_H. Them's fighting words! Finally you and I disagree on something. Puttering around in low earth orbit would be mighty fine by me. I had my astronaut application in before the wife & kids came along. I'd spend a few years training for a shot at a visit aboard the ISS. I'm pretty fit (and much fitter back then) and I thought I'd make a good test subject/guinea pig for long term zero-G tests. But alas, I was a mere civilian Cessna pilot, and they tend to favor military fighter jocks. Alas, what might have been. The first Basic Stamp in space?

    Come on, Pal. Weren't you inspired by the recent "Major Tom" video?

    And wouldn't experimenting in zero-G be the bomb?
  • Heater.Heater. Posts: 21,230
    edited 2013-08-15 03:53
    Martin_H,
    ...tooling around in low earth orbit isn't all that exciting.
    Oh what? If I ever found myself in low Earth orbit I think I would need my brown trousers.
    Or space suit or whatever.

    I do get your point though. Endlessly growing bean sprouts in micro-gravity to see what happens does not really capture the imagination.
  • RforbesRforbes Posts: 281
    edited 2013-08-15 04:33
    Instead of bean sprouts, I think they should have picked a chia pet! cha cha cha chia.... (The kind that came in ceral boxes as prizes way back when.)
  • Martin_HMartin_H Posts: 4,051
    edited 2013-08-15 09:07
    Erco and Heater, I figured that statement would cause a dust up. While I agree that personally going to the ISS might be exciting, it doesn't compare to things like the Apollo program, Voyager, the Hubble telescope, Russia's Venera 9, or landing rovers on Mars. I would have rather the nations pooled their resources for something bigger, like an international manned trip to Mars, or a lets break the ice trip to Europa.
  • Heater.Heater. Posts: 21,230
    edited 2013-08-15 09:53
    Martin_H,

    I don't disagree.

    When I was 12 years old Neil was stepping on the moon. Everything has been kind of disappointing since then.

    Seems there are some thousands of volunteers for a one way trip to Mars that feel the same way.http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/09/tech/innovation/mars-one-applications
  • ercoerco Posts: 20,256
    edited 2013-08-15 10:03
    Rforbes wrote: »
    Instead of bean sprouts, I think they should have picked a chia pet! cha cha cha chia.... (The kind that came in ceral boxes as prizes way back when.)

    Capital idea! That's one way this ersatz erco could visit the ISS. A custom gift from last Christmas.

    chiadorff.jpg
    816 x 612 - 66K
  • Heater.Heater. Posts: 21,230
    edited 2013-08-15 10:07
    chia pet! cha cha cha chia..
    Chia Dorff
    Sometimes I wonder what on Earth you guys are talking about.
    Google is not helping in this case.
  • Dave HeinDave Hein Posts: 6,347
    edited 2013-08-15 10:07
    Though it would be really cool to land humans on Mars it is so much more efficient to explore it using unmanned rovers. A manned Mars mission at this point would be yet another overly expensive manned NASA project. I would much rather see us go back to the Moon and establish a permanent manned presence there.
  • Heater.Heater. Posts: 21,230
    edited 2013-08-15 10:17
    Moon, Mars, it's all the same. We might learn a lot of stuff about the rocks out there but ultimately it's pointless.

    I think there is a growing realization that, unlike the Europeans floating off to the New World after discovering it, there is no nice safe place for humans to go out there.

    Space is frikken big. It would take infeasible amounts of time and or energy to get anywhere interesting. An overwhelming most of it is terminally hostile to humans.

    We are stuck here.

    We will multiply and exploit and consume every possible thing here and then that's it.
  • Dave HeinDave Hein Posts: 6,347
    edited 2013-08-15 10:46
    Heater. wrote: »
    Moon, Mars, it's all the same. We might learn a lot of stuff about the rocks out there but ultimately it's pointless.
    3 days to the Moon versus 6 months to Mars. It's hardly the same. To get to the Moon you just need to pack enough food, water and oxygen for a long weekend. To get to Mars you would need to haul all the food, water and oxygen that you would consume in 6 months. Okay, you can recycle your urine for water, and break down CO2 to recover oxygen. But you still need to bring all that food. And it will be much easier to resupply a moon base than it would be for Mars.

    Sure Mars has a better chance for finding non-terrestrial life. That's even more of an argument for sending robots instead of humans. We don't want to accidentally infest Mars with Earth-based organisms before we've had a chance to fully explore it in search of evidence of life that originated there.

    And it's probably true that all we're ever really going to find on the Moon are rocks. Maybe there'll be some rocks that are actually worth something. The lunar surface is riddled with residue from meteors and asteroids from the past 3 or 4 billion years. There might be areas on moon that contain some element that is rare and valuable on the Earth. Stuff can be shipped back to Earth by launching it from the lunar surface with a rail gun. That's just not feasible from Mars.
  • mindrobotsmindrobots Posts: 6,506
    edited 2013-08-15 10:52
    Heater. wrote: »
    Sometimes I wonder what on Earth you guys are talking about.
    Google is not helping in this case.

    Maybe Google is protecting those outside the US
  • Heater.Heater. Posts: 21,230
    edited 2013-08-15 11:08
    mindrobots,
    Maybe Google is protecting those outside the US
    If so, thank God (Google) for that. How do you guys live in that swamp of wall to wall gibberish without going insane?

    No, no, don't try to explain:)
  • Heater.Heater. Posts: 21,230
    edited 2013-08-15 11:17
    Dave Hein,
    3 days to the Moon versus 6 months to Mars. It's hardly the same.

    My point is that it might as well be. It's like the difference between rowing to the Isle of White from the English main land or rowing to what we now call NewYork.

    You are not thinking big enough. Space is frikken big, unbelievably huge, the nearest star to here is 4 light years away. The nearest place humans could actually end up that is hospitable is probably orders of magnitude even further away. If we could ever pin point what ever direction that is in.

    So yes we can check the rocks and stuff near by, but ultimately we are stuck here.

    By the way, what's all this "We don't want to accidentally infest Mars with Earth-based organisms" business? I thought that's exactly what we want to do. What we want is a new playground. Of course it might be wise to find out if there is anything there that can kill us first.
  • Dave HeinDave Hein Posts: 6,347
    edited 2013-08-15 11:48
    Yes, eventually we want to terra-form Mars, but first we need to thoroughly explore it before we start putting up fast food restaurants and wipe out any potential evidence of ancient life. There's little hope of finding traces of life on the Moon, so we might as well begin building McDonalds there immediately.

    Not being familiar with English geography I had to look up the Isle of White. You must be referring to the HMS Bouncy Castle. Too bad those guys didn't make it across, but maybe they'll succeed next time. And then they can try crossing the Atlantic to New Amsterdam. Oh sorry, I mean New York. I keep forgetting that they changed the name a few years ago. :) Oh, and isn't it called the Isle of Wight, or is the spelling optional?

    Space is unimaginably big. It's will probably be hundreds or thousands of years before we settle on the nearest habitable planet. The speed-of-light barrier is a real downer. Even if the human race could spread out to distant planets 100 light years away what fun is it if it takes 200 years to send a message and get a response.
  • jazzedjazzed Posts: 11,803
    edited 2013-08-15 12:00
    Dave Hein wrote: »
    Yes, eventually we want to terra-form Mars

    Terra-forming Mars will eventually be a total waste of time unless we also give it a magnetic field to stop solar coronal mass ejections from destroying whatever atmosphere we give it.

    There is an Isle of Wight county in Virgina.
  • davejamesdavejames Posts: 4,047
    edited 2013-08-15 12:03
    erco wrote: »
    Capital idea! That's one way this ersatz erco could visit the ISS. A custom gift from last Christmas.

    chiadorff.jpg

    ...now, just how long did it take you to photoshop the pic?
  • Dave HeinDave Hein Posts: 6,347
    edited 2013-08-15 12:12
    We'll just need to park a magnetic deflector at the Mars-Sun L1 Lagrangian point. Even with that, Mars will probably need Oxygen and Nitrogen generators running continually to replace the gas lost to space.
  • jazzedjazzed Posts: 11,803
    edited 2013-08-15 12:17
    Dave Hein wrote: »
    ... Mars will probably need Oxygen and Nitrogen generators running continually to replace the gas lost to space.

    Of course volcanoes serve that purpose on Earth. If Mars was still geologically alive, it would most likely have active volcanoes and a magnetosphere. Guess it might need an ocean too ....
  • Heater.Heater. Posts: 21,230
    edited 2013-08-15 12:32
    Dave,

    Well spotted on the spelling of "Isle of Wight".

    Down there they refer to the main land as "The big island to the north".
    It's will probably be hundreds or thousands of years before we settle on the nearest habitable planet.
    Exactly, just now my feeling is that civilization won't make it that long even if we had the resources to pull it off which is looking less likely all the time.
  • rod1963rod1963 Posts: 752
    edited 2013-08-15 15:05
    The ISS never lived up to it's goal as a R&D orbital platform. Instead it became a make work/feel good program for nations who can't go to space on their own.

    One of the big gotcha's was it's dependence on a rickety old space shuttle that should have been replaced by the time the ISS was being built.
    Sadly contemporary American aerospace companies aren't as bright as their predecessors so we have nothing for a HLV or Earth to orbit transport and probably never will again.

    It's not that we don't have the resources, we do. We just blow it on useless welfare and weapons programs that accomplish nothing of note.

    In regards to interplanetary travel. Had we continued with programs like Nerva and Orion we could have licked interplanetary travel for humans by now.

    The other failure is that the U.S. never had a set of national goals for NASA that would have kept it's budget constant. Instead it varied from administration to administration.

    For the future I see space as playground for the super rich. Who will fly up there, drink booze, party a bit and come back down and brag to their jaded friends. Leave it to Musk to vulgarize space travel.
  • ElectricAyeElectricAye Posts: 4,561
    edited 2013-08-15 15:55
    rod1963 wrote: »
    ...

    For the future I see space as playground for the super rich. Who will fly up there, drink booze, party a bit and come back down and brag to their jaded friends. ...

    I don't see even that lasting very long. Once a thousand or so richies get up there and puke around, space travel will soon lose its exclusive mystique and the price simply won't be worth it even for those who have the cash to burn.

    Outer space simply isn't big enough to accommodate some of the egos we have on earth.
  • RforbesRforbes Posts: 281
    edited 2013-08-15 16:42
    Outer space simply isn't big enough to accommodate some of the egos we have on earth.
    I hear that!

    Concerning the ISS- I wish they would keep it orbiting... and start using it as a staging platform. Every time an astronaut lands on it, do the usual stuff but he/she/they should also have cargo that is to be used to build an on-station launch pad. The launch pad is to be used later, once they've hauled fuel, fuselage, and everything else needed (including chia pets!) for a manned launch from the space station to Mars, Europa, Disney Land, or wherever. It wouldn't save anything in energy usage but it would allow us to stockpile our Smile (to some extent) so the "final" launch could be a much larger craft and would be able to achieve a much higher velocity because we're not trying to escape earths gravitational pull to get us on our way (during that particular launch, anyway.)
  • localrogerlocalroger Posts: 3,451
    edited 2013-08-15 17:14
    One of the more interesting suggestions I saw for what to do with the ISS was to turn it into a space ship and send it to some place like Mars. It's most of the way to being a pretty adequate human-habitable environment for such a long journey, and propulsion and other support could be added to ISS much more cheaply than a new project being started from scratch. You'd need a shielded area for weathering solar storms (most likely surrounded by water and/or waste) but the parameters for that are pretty well understood. It's been operating far longer than it would need to continue to reach Mars. Certainly letting it burn up sounds like a really stupid waste, considering what was spent to put it up there. At least loft it into a more stable orbit where it can sit until we figure out something more useful to do with it.
  • LawsonLawson Posts: 870
    edited 2013-08-16 10:29
    Martin_H wrote: »
    but tooling around in low earth orbit isn't all that exciting.

    You know what WOULD be exciting to do it low earth orbit? On orbit manufacturing and recycling. Work on fully closed loop life support systems. Or serious work on Laser heat exchanger launchers and other cheaper launchers. Basically any research that makes it more likely for me to be able to buy a trip to orbit but is too risky for the private sector is exciting work I think NASA should be doing. Even if it's stuck in low-earth orbit.

    Marty
  • LoopyBytelooseLoopyByteloose Posts: 12,537
    edited 2013-08-16 10:44
    Why bother terra-forming Mars when Earth already needs it?

    In space, location is everything... one space station is absurd, we need 12 or 20 equidistant and in synchronous orbits to allow workers to maintain satellites and have the ability to observe both the entire planet and sky.
  • ercoerco Posts: 20,256
    edited 2013-08-16 11:14
    Why bother terra-forming Mars when Earth already needs it?

    Excellent point, Loopy. If we're just looking to build a colony somewhere, the most barren or polluted wasteland on earth (or under water) would be cheaper and easier than any moon or planet, even if spacesuits, diving suits or hazmat suits were required.
  • RDL2004RDL2004 Posts: 2,554
    edited 2013-08-16 12:26
    ...orbit is far superior to the Moon and Mars for colonization...

    http://settlement.arc.nasa.gov/Basics/wwwwh.html
  • Heater.Heater. Posts: 21,230
    edited 2013-08-16 12:35
    Loopy,
    Why bother terra-forming Mars when Earth already needs it?

    Are you serious? This place is already f***ed up enough by human habitation. That's why we have to find a new place or go extinct.
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