I have 15 years left until retirement. If these robots can do this for less than I can in that time frame then I will have to do something else. However, when dealing with small businesses like I do, I really doubt they will go that route for quite some time!!!!
Ultimately, people cost what they cost. If labor isn't valued high enough, those who did the automation won't have anybody to sell to. Germany understands this, consistently preserving it's labor values so that your average German can afford the product of German industry as well as others. German labor isn't cheap, but it does present very good value for the dollar. IMHO, that's the key in all of this.
There will likely be an ugly time as a whole lot of us will have to learn that the hard way, then there will be a grudging correction toward a more optimal balance. The inability to derive optimal value from the resources will drive this. When Ford started making cars, he very quickly realized that he had to pay people well enough to afford the cars or the market for cars would be stunted, limiting his returns on the investment in cars. There is also the very real competition from another enterprise who does this to consider.
I have 15 years left until retirement. If these robots can do this for less than I can in that time frame then I will have to do something else. However, when dealing with small businesses like I do, I really doubt they will go that route for quite some time!!!!
Well, robots may never pull wire as good as you. I doubt that they will ever clean house or cook as good as a human.
But you might find your career suddenly ended by wireless roving security robots. In other words, the end is likely to be sudden and come from a direction you never anticipated.
I've had to do that 'something else' several times in my lifetime.
The problem is that small business are becoming so short-lived as corporations see an opportunity to snatch a market share from people that are just feeding themselves.
Big enterprises need to respect small ones.
An example -- Walmart often requires that the people they buy from to not only ship product, but to stock shelves, and sweep the floor when they are finished. Sure, they can offer a cheaper price and grow a bigger market share. But they are not letting their suppliers do what they do well, they are shifting workload and costs. They need to respect employees as well. Insuring employees against accidental death without any benefit to the employee is predatory.
Have you ever had a big corporate account and present them with an invoice for payment in 30 days? They might hang on to it for 90, just because they get the use of the money interest free. This is a very common US practice with big US construction contractors and their sub-contractors. The sub-contractor has to go to the bank to meet payroll and suffer the interest expense, or get in hot water with the US Treasury for not meeting payroll and payroll taxes on time.
HR Block goes one further, the do payroll once a year because the law is only that payroll has to be periodic. They are actually borrowing all the sales income from their employee until tax season is over and only providing a 'draw against salary' that is equal to minimum wage.
Construction contractors can't do this because most states have labor laws requiring construction payroll to be paid weekly.
... My feeling is that a core group of study should include bookkeeping, accounting, business law, economics, and taxation -- maybe beginning in high school. ....
Bookkeeping, accounting and taxation in high school? Seriously? As a teenager, I would have died of boredom. Or, by 10th grade, I would have amassed an army and razed the civilization that required me to study those topics, leaving nothing but rubble. Under those circumstances, I would have either slinked away with my physics books and died... or instigated a revolt that would've made Genghis Khan look like a boy scout.
I was told a long time ago that, "You are your own job security."
That philosophy has advised most of the decisions my wife and I have made...like getting good educations in useful fields, being conservative in our finances, and having backup plans on top of backup plans. (For both of us, 'education' included college degrees, but wasn't limited to that. We've been interested and active in our respective fields all our lives.)
Anyway, it has really paid off!! We've survived all sorts of catastrophes with hardly a scratch.
Well, the same article was republished here in today's "Taipei Times", the Sunday edition and it is a full page.
And this week's 'Economist' has another interesting observation on how short-lived the majority of newer technological innovations are in comparasion to those of the past. For instance, nobody wants my old pager or my portable CD player -- but tube hifi audio is collectible along with vinyl recordings. Actually, the 'Economist' has a lot more to say than just that, but trends are startling as people are feeling that the rug is pulled out from under them in a rather surprising fashion. Faster and faster innovation moving us away from being self-sustainable with repairable technologies and an integrated economic and social community; while the rewards seem to be passed off to a crowd of hidden capitalist.
This would make great stuff for a Hollywood movie, but it is almost tooo real.
I am beginning to think computers won't have keyboards in another five years, just touch screens.
...Faster and faster innovation moving us away from being self-sustainable with repairable technologies and an integrated economic and social community; while the rewards seem to be passed off to a crowd of hidden capitalist.....I am beginning to think computers won't have keyboards in another five years, just touch screens.
Have faith in your fellow humans. There is an accelerating underground movement to counter all of that. Some small examples:
The Raspberry Pi. A dinky, cheap, not so powerful computer. So what? The so what is that it has proven that people like dinky and cheap. They like to have ownership and control of their stuff. It proves that this can be done without the big guys like MS, Apple bla bla. It proves that the small guys can all ways move in if the big guys go too far in not providing what people want. This has obviously caught the imagination of many what with the VIA APC and a bunch of other small, cheap ARM boards following hard on it's heels.
In the not too distant future we might find 64 bit ARM computers falling out of packets of breakfast serial!
This has happened before. Remember when departments got mini-computers to escape the expense of the company main frame and the tyranny of its operators. Remember when people got the early 8 bit computers. People want control and they will go to great lengths to get it.
Parallax. Right here we have Chip who dreams of having a small simple machine with it's own simple dev environment. Even if he has to design and build the thing himself. There are, luckily, many Chips in this world.
The Maker movement. For years I thought this kind of thing was dead. Everyone was vegetating with their home theaters and video games. Seems they got bored with that and want to get together and do stuff.
So all the technology that may be a threat to employment and the death of the middle class is also empowering us peasants to fight back.
Absolutely. I would mention GNU / LINUX and the body of open software out there too. Historically, when people are really down and out, for whatever reason, they work together and use natural resources to get it all done as they need to. That software is a resource to be used in precisely that way. I don't always agree with Stallman, but he's spot on with the core dynamics in play right now. Glad we have him.
. by 10th grade, I would have amassed an army and razed the civilization that required me to study those topics, leaving nothing but rubble. Under those circumstances, I would have ... instigated a revolt that would've made Genghis Khan look like a boy scout.
Can we still do this anyway? It sounds like a blast!
True. But the jobs most people have aren't "much of a job." Most jobs are boring and repetitive, but with the newer software, even the more educated jobs are getting thinned out. For example - heck, who needs a lawyer when there are now so many on-line software-driven legal services? Who needs a secretary when you've got all this word-processing power at your fingertips?
That's true, too. But is there a corresponding increase in creative humans? I try to teach people all the time but.... [choking up].... but... it's impossible! There are so many imbeciles out there, made all the more imbecilic thanks - I'm sure of it - to video games. Imbeciles! OMG, they're everywhere!
Don't get me wrong. I'm certainly not one to argue against automation. But I'm concerned about the societal impact it is going to have. To me, there seems to be no mechanism for making the transition to a nearly-fully automated economy an easy one.
I am sure video games is the problem with the world today.... /sigh....
and before that it was TV....
and before that it was 'hip music'
and before that it was ..........
I am sure video games is the problem with the world today.... /sigh....
and before that it was TV....
and before that it was 'hip music'
and before that it was ..........
I want to thank publicly all the "hidden capitalists" who continue to provide me with a bounteous supply of eminently affordable semiconductors, optoelectronics, and passives!
Their foresight, hard work, dogged pursuit of efficiency, and risk taking certainly have enriched my life.
Comments
I have 15 years left until retirement. If these robots can do this for less than I can in that time frame then I will have to do something else. However, when dealing with small businesses like I do, I really doubt they will go that route for quite some time!!!!
There will likely be an ugly time as a whole lot of us will have to learn that the hard way, then there will be a grudging correction toward a more optimal balance. The inability to derive optimal value from the resources will drive this. When Ford started making cars, he very quickly realized that he had to pay people well enough to afford the cars or the market for cars would be stunted, limiting his returns on the investment in cars. There is also the very real competition from another enterprise who does this to consider.
Well, robots may never pull wire as good as you. I doubt that they will ever clean house or cook as good as a human.
But you might find your career suddenly ended by wireless roving security robots. In other words, the end is likely to be sudden and come from a direction you never anticipated.
I've had to do that 'something else' several times in my lifetime.
The problem is that small business are becoming so short-lived as corporations see an opportunity to snatch a market share from people that are just feeding themselves.
Big enterprises need to respect small ones.
An example -- Walmart often requires that the people they buy from to not only ship product, but to stock shelves, and sweep the floor when they are finished. Sure, they can offer a cheaper price and grow a bigger market share. But they are not letting their suppliers do what they do well, they are shifting workload and costs. They need to respect employees as well. Insuring employees against accidental death without any benefit to the employee is predatory.
Have you ever had a big corporate account and present them with an invoice for payment in 30 days? They might hang on to it for 90, just because they get the use of the money interest free. This is a very common US practice with big US construction contractors and their sub-contractors. The sub-contractor has to go to the bank to meet payroll and suffer the interest expense, or get in hot water with the US Treasury for not meeting payroll and payroll taxes on time.
HR Block goes one further, the do payroll once a year because the law is only that payroll has to be periodic. They are actually borrowing all the sales income from their employee until tax season is over and only providing a 'draw against salary' that is equal to minimum wage.
Construction contractors can't do this because most states have labor laws requiring construction payroll to be paid weekly.
Bookkeeping, accounting and taxation in high school? Seriously? As a teenager, I would have died of boredom. Or, by 10th grade, I would have amassed an army and razed the civilization that required me to study those topics, leaving nothing but rubble. Under those circumstances, I would have either slinked away with my physics books and died... or instigated a revolt that would've made Genghis Khan look like a boy scout.
That philosophy has advised most of the decisions my wife and I have made...like getting good educations in useful fields, being conservative in our finances, and having backup plans on top of backup plans. (For both of us, 'education' included college degrees, but wasn't limited to that. We've been interested and active in our respective fields all our lives.)
Anyway, it has really paid off!! We've survived all sorts of catastrophes with hardly a scratch.
And this week's 'Economist' has another interesting observation on how short-lived the majority of newer technological innovations are in comparasion to those of the past. For instance, nobody wants my old pager or my portable CD player -- but tube hifi audio is collectible along with vinyl recordings. Actually, the 'Economist' has a lot more to say than just that, but trends are startling as people are feeling that the rug is pulled out from under them in a rather surprising fashion. Faster and faster innovation moving us away from being self-sustainable with repairable technologies and an integrated economic and social community; while the rewards seem to be passed off to a crowd of hidden capitalist.
This would make great stuff for a Hollywood movie, but it is almost tooo real.
I am beginning to think computers won't have keyboards in another five years, just touch screens.
Have faith in your fellow humans. There is an accelerating underground movement to counter all of that. Some small examples:
The Raspberry Pi. A dinky, cheap, not so powerful computer. So what? The so what is that it has proven that people like dinky and cheap. They like to have ownership and control of their stuff. It proves that this can be done without the big guys like MS, Apple bla bla. It proves that the small guys can all ways move in if the big guys go too far in not providing what people want. This has obviously caught the imagination of many what with the VIA APC and a bunch of other small, cheap ARM boards following hard on it's heels.
In the not too distant future we might find 64 bit ARM computers falling out of packets of breakfast serial!
This has happened before. Remember when departments got mini-computers to escape the expense of the company main frame and the tyranny of its operators. Remember when people got the early 8 bit computers. People want control and they will go to great lengths to get it.
Parallax. Right here we have Chip who dreams of having a small simple machine with it's own simple dev environment. Even if he has to design and build the thing himself. There are, luckily, many Chips in this world.
The Maker movement. For years I thought this kind of thing was dead. Everyone was vegetating with their home theaters and video games. Seems they got bored with that and want to get together and do stuff.
So all the technology that may be a threat to employment and the death of the middle class is also empowering us peasants to fight back.
Can we still do this anyway? It sounds like a blast!
I am sure video games is the problem with the world today.... /sigh....
and before that it was TV....
and before that it was 'hip music'
and before that it was ..........
...moonshine.
Their foresight, hard work, dogged pursuit of efficiency, and risk taking certainly have enriched my life.