LED predictions

Unknown

LEDS will account of 50% of general purpose lighting by 2016 and prices will drop 90% in four years.

http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2011/06/17/51289/led-prices-to-fall-90-by-2015.htm

Time for companies to start thinking about renegotiating pricing and playing hardball by telling vendors "Is that the best you can do?" and "I'm putting it out for bids."

Spiral_72

That will be nice. I can't stand those stupid CFL bulbs and their super bright, no illumination mercury filled tubes.

I prefer incandescents myself. They keep the chicks warm on cold spring nights and the pump house from freezing on cold winter nights.

localroger

This prediction is drawn from a puff piece about a venture capital firm that is heavily invested in the technology, and as the article itself says "Salzman gives no reason for the price drop except the effects of competition and the driving force of regulation..." before butting to a couple of highly speculative technical advances.

LED's were only recently made as energy efficient as flourescents, and there are significant technical problems beyond just making the LED's, such as heat dissipation (since the actual light producing elements are so small). There is also the significant matter, once you know how to do everything, of expanding production capacity enough to fulfill the market demand you're creating. Expecting a startup technology to take 50% market share from not one but two entrenched competing technologies in only 4 years seems more than a little unrealistic. It took considerably longer than that for flat-panel TV's to completely displace CRT's even when there was a clear technical path to making them cheaply, and part of the reason was ramping up the manufacturing for big LCD panels. I expect LED lighting to face a similar introductory period; even if they figure out how to make the chips for nothing tomorrow, they will have to build manufacturing and assembly plants, create mounting standards, and all of the other stuff that was done long ago for conventional lighting. Tight supply will keep prices high (and the profits will be funding the expansion) while this is all sorted out.

I might believe 50% by 2021.

Vern

I'll put down 5 bucks on LED's being outpaced by another technology before they solve all the problems.

localroger

Vern wrote: »

I'll put down 5 bucks on LED's being outpaced by another technology before they solve all the problems.

I'd spot you on that too because there isn't any other tech out there with quite the possibility. White LED's were a holy grail for the electronics industry since I was a kid, and I'm talking the 1970's there. (Actually the holy grail was blue LED's, which people thought would then make white through R+G+B and LED color TV instead of CRT's. When it happened, it was actually ultraviolet LED's and they use flourescent phosphors to convert the UV to full spectrum white light.) It took 40 years from the dawning realization that a solid state light source might be possible for it to become practical for white-color area illumination.

I don't see any other tech for illumination that is in the place today that LED's were in 1970. I do think that eventually (but not within 4 years) the advantages of totally solid state manufacture will start to make themselves felt enough to put a dent in both the incandescent and flourescent markets. Then those will be the target of choice for the next potential better candidate, which probably doesn't even exist in a laboratory yet.

Ron Czapala

The prices are coming down - I recently bought five UtilTech 40W equiv dimmable LED bulbs from Lowes at < $10 apiece. The color is pleasant and they work well in most fixtures but no light radiates toward the base of the bulb since the heat sink is there.

I also bought a Philips 60W equiv AmbientLED dimmable bulb from HomeDepot but at $40, they are too pricey. They do provide more light toward the base. Even though the "bulb" is yellow, it is white when lit.