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1 in 3200 odds of being hit by satellite debris — Parallax Forums

1 in 3200 odds of being hit by satellite debris

Ron CzapalaRon Czapala Posts: 2,418
edited 2011-09-18 17:27 in General Discussion
Not very good odds in my humble opinion...

http://www.nhregister.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e73e9d98bc68656128748.txt

WASHINGTON — U.S. space officials say they expect a dead satellite to fall to Earth in about a week.

NASA has been watching the 6-ton satellite closely. On Friday officials moved up their prediction for its arrival to Sept. 23, give or take a day.

NASA scientists have calculated the satellite will break into 26 pieces as it gets closer to Earth. The odds of it hitting someone anywhere on the planet are 1 in 3,200. The heaviest piece to hit the ground will be about 350 pounds, but no one has ever been hit by falling space junk in the past.

NASA expects to give the public more detailed information early next week. For now, all continents except Antarctica could be hit by satellite debris.

Comments

  • davejamesdavejames Posts: 4,047
    edited 2011-09-16 19:50
    ...well, at least it would be different!
  • mindrobotsmindrobots Posts: 6,506
    edited 2011-09-16 20:01
    Super, I'm more likely to get hit by space junk than win a lottery!!
  • Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi)Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi) Posts: 23,514
    edited 2011-09-16 20:19
    That's one in 3200 odds of it hitting someone. With the world population around 7 billion, that's a one in 22.4 trillion chance of it hitting you. I won't be wasting any tinfoil to make a hat! :)

    -Phil
  • LoopyBytelooseLoopyByteloose Posts: 12,537
    edited 2011-09-17 06:31
    Must be a slow news day, manipulating figures to call out Chicken Little.
  • RS_JimRS_Jim Posts: 1,773
    edited 2011-09-17 06:45
    Loopy Byteloose wrote: »
    Must be a slow news day, manipulating figures to call out Chicken Little.
    Shades of the Reno air disaster! However, I don't have a cave to go live in until it is over!
    Jim
  • ElectricAyeElectricAye Posts: 4,561
    edited 2011-09-17 07:24
    You are far more likely to get killed by a texting teenager or a drunk driver as you drive to your bunker.
  • sylvie369sylvie369 Posts: 1,622
    edited 2011-09-17 08:54
    Here in Wisconsin there are radio ads for the state lottery during the Brewers games. The idea in the ads is that it seems impossible to hit a 95 MPH pitch, but it happens all the time, so why not take your chance with a lottery ticket? Then they give the odds of winning. The odds against just getting your money back are something like 1 in 650. If a guy gets a hit once in every 650 at bats, they don't even let him near the stadium.
  • icepuckicepuck Posts: 466
    edited 2011-09-17 13:28
    ElectricAye wrote: »
    You are far more likely to get killed by a texting teenager or a drunk driver as you drive to your bunker.

    The roads here and surrounding areas have been rather deadly example this past week. Six people have been killed in road side accidents this week alone, people just don't pay attention to their driving.
    -dan
    http://www.kcci.com/news/29175948/detail.html
    http://www.kcci.com/news/29208940/detail.html
    http://www.kcci.com/news/29209468/detail.html
    http://www.kcci.com/news/29196258/detail.html
  • Zap-oZap-o Posts: 452
    edited 2011-09-17 22:07
    mindrobots wrote: »
    Super, I'm more likely to get hit by space junk than win a lottery!!

    Makes me wonder what the odds of, winning the lottery only to be hit by space junk the next day, are.
  • LoopyBytelooseLoopyByteloose Posts: 12,537
    edited 2011-09-17 22:42
    I am more worried that the odds of loosing money in the financial markets is something like 10 to 1. Getting killed by a satellite fragment might be considered a blessing these days. What are the odds that I will get all my Social Security Benefits? I suspect less than 50%.

    And yet, I still try to be optimistic and enjoy life. Odds have a way of confounding us all.
  • ajwardajward Posts: 1,130
    edited 2011-09-18 01:07
    mindrobots wrote: »
    Super, I'm more likely to get hit by space junk than win a lottery!!

    More likely, I'll win the lottery =then= get hit by the satellite! :blank:

    @
  • Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi)Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi) Posts: 23,514
    edited 2011-09-18 08:56
    On last evening's local news, one of the TV newspeople parroted the same misperception about those odds. It's like saying, "Well if there's a one in 3200 chance of somebody in the world getting hit, I'm just sure that somebody's gonna be me!"

    I'm not sure why probability and statistics are omitted from the K-12 curriculum. Understanding that stuff really does help a person make rational choices in life, rather than relying on old wives' tales, superstition, and voodoo mathematics.

    -Phil
  • $WMc%$WMc% Posts: 1,884
    edited 2011-09-18 11:21
    I's like saying,
  • whickerwhicker Posts: 749
    edited 2011-09-18 17:27
    She was walking - all alone
    down the street - in the ally
    Her name was Sally.

    I never touched her.
    She never saw it
    when she was hit by - space junk.
    she was smashed by - space junk.
    she was killed by - space junk.

    In New York. Miami Beach.
    Heavy metal fell.
    In Cuba. Angora.
    Saudia Arabia.
    On Christmas Eve. Said NORAD.

    The soviet Sputnik - in Africa,
    India, Venezuela,
    Texas, Kansas
    it's falling fast - In Peru too
    it keeps coming, it keeps coming,
    it keeps coming!
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