Checking In - Everybody Okay?

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  • We are also making PETG face shields by the hundreds with our laser ...
    Where are you finding 20 mil clear PETG in stock? My usual suppliers are out.

    Thanks,
    -Phil
  • Check McMaster. Not much luck below 1/16" in cut sheets. Note on the item says high demand, they may reduce your order qty. Best I could do 4 weeks ago was 1/16"x12"x12" PETG sheets.
  • State still fairly locked down, but tomorrow we resume elective surgeries and procedures. See how it goes....
  • ... but tomorrow we resume elective surgeries and procedures. ...
    So if you're scheduled for such a procedure, would you really want to proceed with it under the current conditions?

    I was alerted by mychart messaging that my three-year [unnamed procedure] was due again this year. Seriously? There's no freaking way that I'm going to show up at a facility with a bunch of potentially infected people to have this done. So I called the physician's office to explain my position. They were totally in sympathy and suggested postponing until next year. I completely agreed. Individuals have to take responsibility for their own care, regardless of what the state declares is permissible.

    -Phil
  • Tomorrow, May 1st, Idaho enters a four phase opening of the state. Some stores can open along with churches, everybody continuing to observe "social distancing", with masks if around other people.

    I believe each phase is three weeks long, with evaluation whether or not to enter the following phase.

    We'll see...
  • Guess it all depends on what is "is". Or in this case how serious the thing needing the "elective" thing has become with delay. I would assume the risk v benefit figures quite prominently. That and AZDHS has quite the list of requirements/milestones to have arrived at that point. So, we will see what happens next.

    There is a AZ COVID dashboard st this link.. https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
  • We are also making PETG face shields by the hundreds with our laser ...
    Where are you finding 20 mil clear PETG in stock? My usual suppliers are out.

    Thanks,
    -Phil

    That's the trick Phil, my Engineer did a redesign for 40mil since that was all we could source. 20mil is long gone.
  • Cluso99Cluso99 Posts: 16,147
    edited 2020-05-01 - 15:26:13
    We opened up a little today. Hope it’s not too soon!
    But our curve is totally flat, our testing is quite high, and new cases minor now.
    We have ~6800 cases and under 100 deaths. The US has about 13x our population.

    Thankful to be in Oz. Our yearly visit to the UK to visit our daughter and family in August probably won’t happen this year - shame as we got great airfares weeks before covid hit. Cannot complain tho as we both are working from home and there are so many much worse off than us. Our hearts go out to them.
  • ercoerco Posts: 19,697
    All good here. In fact, I'm about to pull my Corvair out of the garage and yank the motor to rebuild. It's only been sitting for 19 years. So yes, this marks the start of... Corvaired-19! Been hoarding parts...
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  • PublisonPublison Posts: 11,364
    edited 2020-05-03 - 00:35:37
    Bout' time! :)

    Did you buy an extra clutch for the Cessna? :wink:
  • Everything fine here in NYC. We've not opened up yet. However there are plans.... And as it happens I finally needed to venture out to a shop to track down a few items. One happens to be a new iPod Touch. The thing resembles an iPhone with out the phone guts...... I also glommed a pair of widgets that our friends at the Raspberry Pi Foundation designed originally for their new one. It turns the USB-C connectors on it, into ordinary USB style connectors that most of us have scads of here. And something that Sparkfun describes as a widget that acts as a bridge between a regular WiFi network and the Infrared remote controls that we've all got hanging around.

    And let's just say I am beyond boredom here.
  • Other than the fact that God has seen fit to have APS and Southwest Gas restored a bit early this year, Az doing OK, though we seem to be a bit rebellious lately. Was a bit surprised to see a couple of N95 masks behind the counter, but not surprised by the price of $12.00+. Would not buy it anyway, since no way to fit test it. Or even tell if it really was an N95. Already finding counterfits out there. Annual fit test at work uses a bubble helmet and a test chemical that tastes sweet if your fit is not right or the mask has failed.
  • ErNaErNa Posts: 1,379
    edited 2020-05-03 - 18:00:59
    In trying to understand the data of cases etc I made this little experiment: downloaded data from the European Data Portal and plottet integral cases vs. integral deaths. As death is delayed to sickness, but death should be proportional to case number, I introduced a time offset of 10 and 15 to see what happens. We should expect a straight line in case of the right time offset. Did this for Germany. Would be interesting to have an application that does this for all countries and see if there are differences...
    SnSh03.05.2020-11.38.47.gif
    Did another graph for data of US
    SnSh03.05.2020-19.50.22.gif
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  • I've been tracking the numbers in the U.S., and I've noticed a few things. There is a variation in the reported numbers within each week, so I've used a 7-day moving average filter to smooth out the daily variations. The delay from new reported cases to new reported deaths was about 6 days, until recently. The delay now seems to be getting longer, may be due to earlier testing. Dividing the daily deaths by the daily new cases (delayed by 6 days) gives a death rate of about 7%. Note that the actual death rate is lower than this. Random testing shows that the actual number of cases could be 10 times the number of reported cases, which would give a death rate of 0.7%.

    Here's a chart that shows the daily deaths in blue, smoothed with a 7-day moving average filter. The red line is the predicted amount, which is 7% of the new reported cases, delayed by 6 days and smoothed with the 7-day filter. The predicted amount matches fairly close to the actual amount up until around April 7. After that I think that increased, and earlier testing changes the delay and the reported death rate.
    USA-COVID-19.gif
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  • My thoughts are that in developed countries with reasonable health facilities, the death rate v reported cases should be similar. I know there is a delay from cases to deaths and this will affect the percentages.

    As of this morning from this site
    https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Coronavirus.jpg

    So this tells me that either the death rate is seriously way higher than the flu, or the number of cases is extremely underestimated, or both.
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  • Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi)Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi) Posts: 22,624
    edited 2020-05-04 - 01:59:19
    What's striking is reported deaths from any source this year vs. reported deaths averaged over prior years in a certain area of the country. The numbers are so significantly higher that one might conclude that deaths due to COVID-19 are grossly under-reported.

    -Phil
  • Cluso99 wrote: »
    So this tells me that either the death rate is seriously way higher than the flu, or the number of cases is extremely underestimated, or both.

    Every reliable source I've seen says Coronavirus is twice as infectious as 'flu and ten times more dangerous.
  • Every reliable source I've seen says Coronavirus is twice as infectious as 'flu and ten times more dangerous.

    Agreed, I've read COVID-19 is 300-400% more deadly than the flu, but considering the flu killed roughly 68.5k people last year, [CDC Report] our response to treatments and actions should be treated seriously. I think there are a lot of people who have not taken it seriously, because of how society treats the flu each year. People still go to work and spread it without a concern for others. The amount of people who go to work sick because they "can't miss any time" is staggering. I dont know about you all, but it has been common-practice that people still go to work until they are deathly ill before removing themselves from general population. It's a personal pet-peeve of mine and I've joked around that it should be treated as bio-terrorism. It seems when it comes to COVID-19, people are getting on board with that idea. There was a lady who coughed on produce as a joke and she was charged accordingly, and it set a new precedence; seemingly all the news outlets ran the story, here is one [news story]. A potential silver-lining out of all this, perhaps COVID will change how we treat going to work sick or how we respond to pandemics as a country.

    Here is a simple yet informative map that Google put together that gathers numbers from everywhere. [ Google Response Map ]


  • Post COVID bedtime story. Honestly, I hope it comes true..........
  • That is a great video, I'm totally sharing that :smiley:
  • Post COVID bedtime story. Honestly, I hope it comes true..........
    JD wrote: »
    That is a great video, I'm totally sharing that :smiley:

    Me too....Both that it comes true and sharing it.
  • Post COVID bedtime story. Honestly, I hope it comes true..........

    The conclusion is inescapable: I'm living on a different planet. I don't know what this video is talking about.

  • K2 wrote: »
    Post COVID bedtime story. Honestly, I hope it comes true..........

    The conclusion is inescapable: I'm living on a different planet. I don't know what this video is talking about.

    In that case, what are you doing watching Boss Rogers (me) bother some character who can't do something straight? Because I also do not understand the meaning behind the video.
  • ercoerco Posts: 19,697
    All good here. Resuming an old project after 19 years. There is MUCH to do, all summer long, just to make it drivable. Wife & kids have never seen this thing out of the garage! It's dusty & rusty but's my first car and I'm thrilled to be back on the case.

    Everyone says they wish they still had their first car, problems & all. I'm the only sucker who did...

    I put a new battery in and doubled the value of the car. Nowhere to go but UP!

    I'll be adding some electronics to update this '67. For instance, years ago, I installed custom thermocouples in the heads to measure temps, but never hooked 'em up.

    corvairout.jpg
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  • Just sold all my 20 year projects last year. They all went to hoverclubofamerica members, so the will live on!
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  • Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi)Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi) Posts: 22,624
    edited 2020-05-08 - 21:11:03
    erco wrote:
    Everyone says they wish they still had their first car, problems & all.
    Me, too: 1966 Rambler American 6-cyl 3-spd 2-door. That chariot transported me out of Indiana and everywhere from Alaska to Tijuana and points in between. It was easy to work on, too. You could practically stand inside the engine compartment. Totaled it in Port Angeles shortly after moving to Washington. :( Had never seen an in-town intersection with no stop signs before. Otherwise, I'm sure I'd still be driving it.

    -Phil
  • erco wrote: »
    All good here. Resuming an old project after 19 years. There is MUCH to do, all summer long, just to make it drivable. Wife & kids have never seen this thing out of the garage! It's dusty & rusty but's my first car and I'm thrilled to be back on the case.

    Everyone says they wish they still had their first car, problems & all. I'm the only sucker who did...

    I put a new battery in and doubled the value of the car. Nowhere to go but UP!

    I'll be adding some electronics to update this '67. For instance, years ago, I installed custom thermocouples in the heads to measure temps, but never hooked 'em up.

    corvairout.jpg

    Quarantine let's use do so much more work that really needs to be done. :)
  • erco wrote: »
    All good here. Resuming an old project after 19 years. There is MUCH to do, all summer long, just to make it drivable. Wife & kids have never seen this thing out of the garage! It's dusty & rusty but's my first car and I'm thrilled to be back on the case.

    Everyone says they wish they still had their first car, problems & all. I'm the only sucker who did...

    I put a new battery in and doubled the value of the car. Nowhere to go but UP!

    I'll be adding some electronics to update this '67. For instance, years ago, I installed custom thermocouples in the heads to measure temps, but never hooked 'em up.

    corvairout.jpg

    It took you 19 years to raise some helpers for this project.
  • ercoerco Posts: 19,697
    Whit wrote: »

    It took you 19 years to raise some helpers for this project.

    So true, Boss! I keep calling "their car" to keep them involved.
  • ercoerco Posts: 19,697
    Me, too: 1966 Rambler American 6-cyl 3-spd 2-door.

    -Phil

    Plenty of steel to go around in these 60's cars. I also had a 1960 Corvair for several years. SOLID. STEEL. DASH. Sold it to a buddy going to grad school at Stanford. After he got a job, he sold it and bought a new Honda. One week later he T-boned a car that ran a red light, totaling his Honda. Airbags deployed, he walked away fine, his glasses never even bent. He wouldn't be here had he been in the Corvair! (But the Corvair would have survived.)
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