Isaac Asimov on 2019

Happy New Year!

Here's what Asimov predicted about 2019... 35 years ago. Some hits, some misses (robots, space).

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/12/27/35-years-ago-isaac-asimov-was-asked-by-the-star-to-predict-the-world-of-2019-here-is-what-he-wrote.html

Comments

  • You mean the Roomba doesn't count?
  • You mean the Roomba doesn't count?

    Roomba counts. If anything he fell short on advances in robotics and was a bit overly optimistic on space and the state of global politics.
  • I think his predictions rely on a higher percentage of the population becoming scientifically and technologically savvy. Unfortunately, I don't think that's the case (note: I'm providing no actual facts to back this up). Yes, there are more STEM-aware people now, but there are also more people overall. And in countries where there's been a significant increase in STEM-related industry, there is also a significant increase in non-STEM people who manage those people. In the end, overcoming the human condition is still a major limiting factor, no matter how promising the science and technology might be.
  • Cluso99Cluso99 Posts: 16,159
    edited 2019-01-03 - 05:40:18
    I was sure we would go to Mars within 10 years of landing on the moon. How wrong I was :(

    We don't even go to the moon any more.
  • "We don't even go to the moon any more" ... yup the whole Space time differential between Moon and Earth screws with humans heads.
  • WhitWhit Posts: 4,118
    edited 2019-01-04 - 21:41:57
    We don't go to the Moom, but somebody is...

    https://roboticsunderthestole.blogspot.com/2019/01/chinas-change-4.html



    and we did just land on Mars again...

    https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/insight/
  • Aha, so the reason we don't have robots here on Earth is that we sent them all into space...
  • The time frame on the total transformation of the world economy was a bit off. Its currently on the upswing. He was also very optimistic about the end result. Rather than his idea of it leading to cooperation out of a mutual, rational, fear of the consequences of not cooperating, it seems to be leading to a resurgence of isolationism, nationalism and fascism. Of course it could still turn out that he was right, but more likely those dark forces will grow beyond a terrifying nuisance in some places and take total control, while in others, their opponents will prevail and we will end up drawing new lines of conflict. The phrase "The more things change, the more they stay the same" comes to mind. (I does come to mind, that the way to stop the "others" from coming to your country and "preserve" your way of life is simply to run your economy into the ground and instiute a despotic police state. Few decided they wanted to sneak INTO East Germany)
  • The time frame on the total transformation of the world economy was a bit off. Its currently on the upswing. He was also very optimistic about the end result. Rather than his idea of it leading to cooperation out of a mutual, rational, fear of the consequences of not cooperating, it seems to be leading to a resurgence of isolationism, nationalism and fascism. Of course it could still turn out that he was right, but more likely those dark forces will grow beyond a terrifying nuisance in some places and take total control, while in others, their opponents will prevail and we will end up drawing new lines of conflict. The phrase "The more things change, the more they stay the same" comes to mind. (I does come to mind, that the way to stop the "others" from coming to your country and "preserve" your way of life is simply to run your economy into the ground and instiute a despotic police state. Few decided they wanted to sneak INTO East Germany)

    well Angela Merkel did. Born in West-Germany, went to East-Germany.

    Mike

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