No conspiracy theories here abt internet but my router died I guess. Was jumping channels and not putting sig out most of the time. Power cycle and it worked abt 15 minutes. Back on with old router but SLOW.
Okay. KMyers started it, and now I'm going there. (Tongue in cheek mode here, but actual events)
- Last Sunday *two* routers at the office fried. One was missing the magic smoke. (No storms or lightning. No idea what happened.
- Tuesday AM I lost the DSL connection at home. Two service calls later, I'm back up (DSLAM was hosed).
- Thursday I spent three hours fighting with a laptop that would not stay awake. (Bad battery, swollen and ready to rupture).
- Today I've got a GPS module that thinks its in South Dakota, then Saudi Arabia, then... nowhere.
Clearly this coronavirus is capable of attacking hardware.
- Today I've got a GPS module that thinks its in South Dakota, then Saudi Arabia, then... nowhere.
I stopped using a pedometer app on my phone because GPS had me moving around my city like some kind of superhero. I wonder if there was an issue with the GPS system. I haven't used that app in several days -- will try again on my afternoon walk.
- Today I've got a GPS module that thinks its in South Dakota, then Saudi Arabia, then... nowhere.
I stopped using a pedometer app on my phone because GPS had me moving around my city like some kind of superhero. I wonder if there was an issue with the GPS system. I haven't used that app in several days -- will try again on my afternoon walk.
And you have not had a visit from your local constabulary regarding all your non-critical trips all over the city? Hmmm, give 'em time......
- Today I've got a GPS module that thinks its in South Dakota, then Saudi Arabia, then... nowhere.
I stopped using a pedometer app on my phone because GPS had me moving around my city like some kind of superhero. I wonder if there was an issue with the GPS system. I haven't used that app in several days -- will try again on my afternoon walk.
You are going to skew Google's data if you keep that up.....
While everyone is on this blog & forum - What is the hospital situation in your city? Busy or not? Some of the media show the news with lots of patients, some are silent, some in between. Here in Daytona Beach things are pretty quiet, all things considered. And our beaches are still open for walking, jogging, running, cycling and fishing.
Major hospital downtown in Vth largest (?) metro area in US..... quiet. Visitation is restricted to nearly none in most cases. Staff calm and efficient, systems running and properly maintained. Halls are quiet. Have not heard of any bad behavior issues; guess the idea of Human Kindness goes a very long way in uncertain times. Cafeteria is just plain weird, one chair at each table, only one or a few people scattered around a fairly large space; all staff requested to eat/break in department break area rather than cafeteria. Elective cases reduced to near zero. Anything that can be put off is being put off. Some non-clinical departments have shift staggering to limit number of persons working in a given area at a time. [opinion follows, my view, no way related to my employer's outlook or projections] I personally believe this to be a calm before the storm situation. Once the covid-19 stuff resolves, all 7734 is going to break loose. While cosmetic stuff really may be elective, I think a lot of "elective" stuff if not done in a reasonable amount of time may not be so elective and we will see a flood of the delayed and new cases all at once. [end of unofficial opinion]. On the positive side, much easier access to systems for maintenance during regular hours than before. Media reports that two recently closed hospitals may be reopened by govt. solely for covid19 patients. Not sure on the timeline of that.
Parks are pretty much closed, even with social distancing. Not sure about hiking trails, news article and pictures showed hikers getting bunched closer due to increased usage with all the work closures. See what happens. TP and cleaning supplies somewhat sketchy supply, stores limiting access/volume where you actually can get in. ACE hw no real restrictions since lower volume. Home Depot has one entrance and three exits here, entry appears monitored by number let in determined by number checking out. Fewer registers to maintain distance. Personally I avoid cash as much as possible. Samsung Pay on Note series phone with few exceptions works just like a swiping a credit card. Last time at a Walmart, all registers were closed and store employees directing flow of checkouts through the self checkout stands.
Likely TMI, but that's the way it is here on the doorstep of 7734. Ol' Scratch is probably gonna turn on the heat here in the next month or less, and it won't be the doorstep any more.
PSA:
One more thing: Mask making controversy. Some youtubes showing masks being made of HEPA filters. Others warning that some HEPA filters modded this way may expose the users to microfiber glass particles. Some other filters may not. Don't know how to tell. We use these bags everywhere, so if I had to guess, the hazard if any, presents when the filter material normally sealed inside the bag is exposed. Don't know, not trying that. Just a heads up, research carefully. End of PSA.......
New Orleans area -- calm before the storm. The numbers are gradually ramping up, with no sign of slowing yet from the countermeasures. If the curve doesn't flatten the health care system will be overwhelmed in a matter of days. Thanks probably to Mardi Gras, we are a few days ahead of the rest of the country on this.
There are basically no services for non-potential-COVID patients. I am supposed to have a followup to a nuclear stress test with my cardiologist this month, which almost certainly isn't going to happen. And I shudder to think what would happen if I actually had a heart attack this month. Thankfully I don't seem at risk for that for the moment.
This is a familiar feeling, the hours of deceptively clear weather before the hurricane hits. But it's not the storm we're used to. The hurricane hits and leaves within a matter of hours, and this storm will be lingering over us for weeks or months.
My county (Jefferson) in Washington State has 20 recorded cases, so far. I asked a friend of mine whose wife works in the hospital lab what the mood at the hospital is like these days. She said it's very quiet, like the calm before the storm.
And you have not had a visit from your local constabulary regarding all your non-critical trips all over the city? Hmmm, give 'em time......
Thankfully, walks are still allowed, just not gathering in parks, etc., or grouping of people. My daily walk takes me past facility that had a COVID-19 outbreak which resulted in a couple of deaths (it's a facility that cares for the elderly). Shockingly, the sidewalk and gutter in front of the building has been littered with used gloves and masks. I reported them to the city, the local media that ran the death story, and called someone I know who works for the Burbank PD. To my dismay, there is still this litter in front of the facility after 3 days.
On the good news side of things, my local grocery seems stocked with everything, and the family received wonderful news today that my sister and her husband (who work in healthcare and have been showing symptoms) tested negative. They will remain in quarantine at home until fully recovered, but I'm relieved that they're on the mend and they don't have this virus.
Havent been out in a month here. My doctors have postponed my apointments. I am very much a stay at home person due to driving a power chair. Hard to get out with out getting run over. <G>
We know this invisible enemy is here with us now and the average body knows how to meet him. Some fever, that's it. About every second who needs a ventilator is going to die. Next year it will come again but our body is prepared, in the end
82,790,000 / 61,913 = 1338 as of 03.30.2020
82,790,000 / 67.366 = 1229 as of 01,04,2020 7 days to double # of positive tested individuals
82,790,000 / 73,522 = 1126 as of 02,04,2020
82,790,000 / 79,696 = 1039 as of 03,04,2020
82,790,000 / 85,778 = 965 as of 04,04,2020
82,790,000 / 91,714 = 903 as of 05,04,2020 11 days to double # of positive tested individuals
82,790,000 / 95,391 = 868 as of 06,04,2020
82,790,000 / 99,225 = 834 as of 07,04,2020
82,790,000 / 103,228 = 802 as of 08,04,2020
82,790,000 / 108,202 = 765 as of 09,04,2020
82,790,000 / 113,525 = 729 as of 10,04,2020 16.7 day to double # of positive tested individuals
To me these numbers show the situation quite well. An assumption is: for every positive tested person there is one not tested. With time the number of recovered individuals will grow, so they reduce the probability to acquire the virus. So if the death rate is very high, medical treatment average or the best in the world, that means many not tested people carry the virus. Social distancing allows everyone to be a hero!
Restrictions are supposed be reduced when doubling time reaches 14 days.
Here in NYC, it is the calm before the storm. The hospitals are full of such patients. And the convention center in Manhattan now works as a hospital. Yes there are such things as people disposing their PPE stuff the wrong way. And my big problem being inside all day, boredom.
But certain numbers are going down. So there's hope.
Portland Oregon area. Oregon is on a fairly reasonable stay at home. I don't think it's quite enough, but case rise is modest here at the moment.
Didn't see this, until after my post. Now I'm going to go read the news on everyone and hope it's good. Is for us now, but whoo boy! We had it really rough.
An FYI in case anyone on the forum is not aware of this coronavirus site that is consolidating information from around the world. For the US I think the confirmed infected number is about half of the actual total infected due to the lack of testing. That's not just my opinion, but the consensus of many experts, so be careful out there.
Here in New Orleans we got a head start on the rest of the country and have either just passed or are nearing the peak for new cases, depending on which model you believe. We are only a few doublings from saturating the population of the metro area (about 2 million people) and some local subpopulatins have undoubtably already been saturated; two of the twenty or so people I regularly interact with through work have tested positive, several others have become ill enough to miss some work during the last couple of weeks, and those numbers are consistent with all of us having already been exposed long enough ago that we'd be out of the quarantine period by now if we had known.
One thing that you really need to know is the total tested (or negative test results).
Because if you have tested 100 people and 99 are positive, you can be sure you are missing many people because you are only testing people who obviously are infected.
If you have tested 100 people and 10 are positive, you can be pretty sure you are detecting all of the positive cases.
I think the hospitals/government uses this method to "control" the numbers somewhat. At least in the beginning.
Funny how China has four times as many people, yet only 1/4 of the cases as the USA. Things that make you go hmmmm.
An FYI in case anyone on the forum is not aware of this coronavirus site that is consolidating information from around the world. For the US I think the confirmed infected number is about half of the actual total infected due to the lack of testing. That's not just my opinion, but the consensus of many experts, so be careful out there.
Funny how China has four times as many people, yet only 1/4 of the cases as the USA. Things that make you go hmmmm.
They completely locked down Wuhan with 11 million people, for more than two months. People were staying inside their small apartments all that time, and those who didn't comply got their doors welded shut. They're opening up only now, and today I watched videos on BBC made by people coming out of lockdown, and telling how they handled it and what the difficulties were (one guy living with his partner said "when you are together 24 hours a day for months, all your flaws come out!")
And that was just Wuhan. Similar, if not as strict measures were done over a huge area. Of course you get results when you block all possible infection vectors.
Sadly, the freedoms we enjoy in the US makes it much harder to contain this virus than in China, where the military & martial law were rapidly deployed.
Some argue that our fearless leaders didn't act fast enough. They were walking that fine line between encouraging "an abundance of caution" and causing a panic. Even with their mild initial warnings, people freaked out and started hoarding TP... another freedom. Imagine what would have happened if the warnings were more serious!
'Nuff said, not trying to get political. Just that comparing responses between countries is apples & oranges.
The political turning point in Louisiana came in the first two weeks of March. Mardi Gras was in late February, and hardly anybody was conscious that COVID was a thing that might have an effect on the US, except possibly in private or high-level circles. In the first week of March we had our first definite COVID cases, and people began to mutter that Mardi Gras had brought it here -- but the bigger problem was that we had also sent it out to the rest of the country through our visitors. In the first week of March a few small weekend festivals were canceled or postponed, but the elephant in the room was JazzFest, which is our #2 event after Mardi Gras. The words "we can't let this interfere with JazzFest" were actually said by multiple people in front of cameras. When they announced second week of March that JazzFest and a slew of lesser Spring festivals were postponed until Fall, we knew it was serious. Then on March 18 the shelter in place order went into effect closing every restaurant for dine-in. And in New Orleans that is an almost inconceivable sacrifice both to the economy and local culture. But they did it, so somebody must actually know how exponential math works.
@localroger There is a twin sister to expotential math called "experiential math". Any politician who didn't have a fluency in the first kind, likely gained a graduate-level degree in the second kind. Especially if they got a bad case of Covid.
It will be interesting to see how long the political collective will remember this experience.
Well @JRoark by mid-March we didn't really have a lot of cases here but we have a large Italian population, and I think they were paying very close attention to what was happening in Italy. I was shocked by both the decisiveness and suddenness of the shutdown. And not shocked in a bad way, shocked by its unexpected correctness even though it was likely to be both very unpopular and damaging to the economy.
I think the experiential math is creeping up on us, as the numbers grow in their predicted pattern far beyond what seemed naively likely a month ago. Unfortunately much of the rest of the country hasn't gotten the memo yet.
Well @JRoark by mid-March we didn't really have a lot of cases here but we have a large Italian population, and I think they were paying very close attention to what was happening in Italy. I was shocked by both the decisiveness and suddenness of the shutdown. And not shocked in a bad way, shocked by its unexpected correctness even though it was likely to be both very unpopular and damaging to the economy.
I think the experiential math is creeping up on us, as the numbers grow in their predicted pattern far beyond what seemed naively likely a month ago. Unfortunately much of the rest of the country hasn't gotten the memo yet.
I agree. And good for those who paid attention early!
Hopefully, coronavirus will prove to be a powerful learning tool for our next generation of leaders. The message to be driven home is this: those who acted quickly, firmly, and without too much hand-wringing about being Monday-morning quarterbacked if they were wrong... saved lives.
There is another message here too, at least for those who are not already on-board: A well-stocked pantry is absolutely something to strive for. Different religious / social / ethnic groups do it differently, but at the core the result is the same. Enhanced self-reliance. Our grandparents *got* this concept. Unfortunately, we seem to have let the "just-in-time" method of inventory management bleed over into our modern pantries. Our grandparents would be gobsmacked by this behavior. I can almost hear their voices from the beyond: "Pantries should be built for just-in-CASE inventory, Roark...". IMHO our collective strategy needs to change, and I'm hopeful the current troubles will be a catalyst for showing the wisdom of this.
We know this invisible enemy is here with us now and the average body knows how to meet him. Some fever, that's it. About every second who needs a ventilator is going to die. Next year it will come again but our body is prepared, in the end
82,790,000 / 61,913 = 1338 as of 03,30,2020
82,790,000 / 67.366 = 1229 as of 04,01,2020 7 days to double # of positive tested individuals
82,790,000 / 73,522 = 1126 as of 04,02,2020
82,790,000 / 79,696 = 1039 as of 04,03,2020
82,790,000 / 85,778 = 965 as of 04,04,2020
82,790,000 / 91,714 = 903 as of 04,05,2020 11 days to double # of positive tested individuals
82,790,000 / 95,391 = 868 as of 04,06,2020
82,790,000 / 99,225 = 834 as of 04,07,2020
82,790,000 / 103,228 = 802 as of 04,08,2020
82,790,000 / 108,202 = 765 as of 04,09,2020
82,790,000 / 113,525 = 729 as of 04,10,2020 16.7 day to double # of positive tested individuals
82,790,000 / 117,658 = 703 as of 04,11,2020
82,790,000 / 120,479 = 687 as of 04,12,2020
82,790,000 / 123,016 = 673 as of 04,13,2020
82,790,000 / 125,098 = 661 as of 04,14,2020
82,790,000 / 127,584 = 648 as of 04,15,2020
82,790,000 / 130.450 = 634 as of 04,16,2020
82,790,000 / 133.830 = 618 as of 04,17,2020
82,790,000 / 139.897 = 609 as of 04,18,2020
82,790,000 / 139.897 = 602 as of 04,19,2020
82,790,000 / 139.897 = 591 as of 04,20,2020
82,790,000 / 143.457 = 577 as of 04,21,2020
82,790,000 / 145.694 = 568 as of 04,22,2020 Lifting the curtain a little, let's see what happens!
82,790,000 / 149.900 = 552 as of 04,23,2020
82,790,000 / 152.300 = 543 as of 04,24,2020
82,790,000 / 152.438 = 543 as of 04,25,2020
82,790,000 / 154.175 = 537 as of 04,25,2020
To me these numbers show the situation quite well. An assumption is: for every positive tested person there is one not tested. With time the number of recovered individuals will grow, so they reduce the probability to acquire the virus. So if the death rate is very high, medical treatment average or the best in the world, that means many not tested people carry the virus. Social distancing allows everyone to be a hero!
Restrictions are supposed be reduced when doubling time reaches 14 days.
Update: now doubling rate is up to 16.7 days, social distancing and all the other rules simply to follow seem to work! That will save much more lives than any ICU or ventilator. It's on us to make the world a better place. Leaders usually reflect the notion of people. That is why the following generations have to remember what made dictators possible and so bear responsibility not for the deeds of the fathers but for the lessons they have to learn!
In Germany more than 90% of the tests return negative, what is positive. We run about 500,000 tests a week. With an accumulated positive result of 100,000 more then 1,000,000 tests have been made. Within one week the case number increased by 33,000. So the hit rate is 6.6%
About 470,000 positive results are documented for the US. Having comparable test density the US should have run 7121212.12.. tests, what is a funny number, as 7+1+2 = 10. Strange thinks happen. Maybe we can do more calculations to find even better numbers?
I’m sorry I’ve missed this thread spent last Friday learning to sew and all week making fu masks non stop while ordering mask supplies from amazon... and shipping via usps. Getting masks to family, friends, and coworkers just before more or less required
Comments
Okay. KMyers started it, and now I'm going there. (Tongue in cheek mode here, but actual events)
- Last Sunday *two* routers at the office fried. One was missing the magic smoke. (No storms or lightning. No idea what happened.
- Tuesday AM I lost the DSL connection at home. Two service calls later, I'm back up (DSLAM was hosed).
- Thursday I spent three hours fighting with a laptop that would not stay awake. (Bad battery, swollen and ready to rupture).
- Today I've got a GPS module that thinks its in South Dakota, then Saudi Arabia, then... nowhere.
Clearly this coronavirus is capable of attacking hardware.
And you have not had a visit from your local constabulary regarding all your non-critical trips all over the city? Hmmm, give 'em time......
You are going to skew Google's data if you keep that up.....
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
Some interesting data on the reports.
It doesn't take much to mess with Goggle Maps, as one little red wagon proved.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/9393w7/this-man-created-traffic-jams-on-google-maps-using-a-red-wagon-full-of-phones
Could also have been a stunt, it would be really easy to fake what he did.
Parks are pretty much closed, even with social distancing. Not sure about hiking trails, news article and pictures showed hikers getting bunched closer due to increased usage with all the work closures. See what happens. TP and cleaning supplies somewhat sketchy supply, stores limiting access/volume where you actually can get in. ACE hw no real restrictions since lower volume. Home Depot has one entrance and three exits here, entry appears monitored by number let in determined by number checking out. Fewer registers to maintain distance. Personally I avoid cash as much as possible. Samsung Pay on Note series phone with few exceptions works just like a swiping a credit card. Last time at a Walmart, all registers were closed and store employees directing flow of checkouts through the self checkout stands.
Likely TMI, but that's the way it is here on the doorstep of 7734. Ol' Scratch is probably gonna turn on the heat here in the next month or less, and it won't be the doorstep any more.
PSA:
One more thing: Mask making controversy. Some youtubes showing masks being made of HEPA filters. Others warning that some HEPA filters modded this way may expose the users to microfiber glass particles. Some other filters may not. Don't know how to tell. We use these bags everywhere, so if I had to guess, the hazard if any, presents when the filter material normally sealed inside the bag is exposed. Don't know, not trying that. Just a heads up, research carefully. End of PSA.......
There are basically no services for non-potential-COVID patients. I am supposed to have a followup to a nuclear stress test with my cardiologist this month, which almost certainly isn't going to happen. And I shudder to think what would happen if I actually had a heart attack this month. Thankfully I don't seem at risk for that for the moment.
This is a familiar feeling, the hours of deceptively clear weather before the hurricane hits. But it's not the storm we're used to. The hurricane hits and leaves within a matter of hours, and this storm will be lingering over us for weeks or months.
Rice could be next.
-Phil
On the good news side of things, my local grocery seems stocked with everything, and the family received wonderful news today that my sister and her husband (who work in healthcare and have been showing symptoms) tested negative. They will remain in quarantine at home until fully recovered, but I'm relieved that they're on the mend and they don't have this virus.
Stay safe, and stay well, everyone.
Restrictions are supposed be reduced when doubling time reaches 14 days.
But certain numbers are going down. So there's hope.
We are OK now, but...
http://forums.parallax.com/discussion/171429/i-may-have-survived-the-virus#latest
Portland Oregon area. Oregon is on a fairly reasonable stay at home. I don't think it's quite enough, but case rise is modest here at the moment.
Didn't see this, until after my post. Now I'm going to go read the news on everyone and hope it's good. Is for us now, but whoo boy! We had it really rough.
Because if you have tested 100 people and 99 are positive, you can be sure you are missing many people because you are only testing people who obviously are infected.
If you have tested 100 people and 10 are positive, you can be pretty sure you are detecting all of the positive cases.
I think the hospitals/government uses this method to "control" the numbers somewhat. At least in the beginning.
Funny how China has four times as many people, yet only 1/4 of the cases as the USA. Things that make you go hmmmm.
Bean
Here are some other sites with interesting data:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
This site has a really nice dashboard (and a nice mobile version as well)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Sometimes I have had to reload the link 2 times to get it to come up for the first time in a browser.
And that was just Wuhan. Similar, if not as strict measures were done over a huge area. Of course you get results when you block all possible infection vectors.
Some argue that our fearless leaders didn't act fast enough. They were walking that fine line between encouraging "an abundance of caution" and causing a panic. Even with their mild initial warnings, people freaked out and started hoarding TP... another freedom. Imagine what would have happened if the warnings were more serious!
'Nuff said, not trying to get political. Just that comparing responses between countries is apples & oranges.
It will be interesting to see how long the political collective will remember this experience.
I think the experiential math is creeping up on us, as the numbers grow in their predicted pattern far beyond what seemed naively likely a month ago. Unfortunately much of the rest of the country hasn't gotten the memo yet.
I agree. And good for those who paid attention early!
Hopefully, coronavirus will prove to be a powerful learning tool for our next generation of leaders. The message to be driven home is this: those who acted quickly, firmly, and without too much hand-wringing about being Monday-morning quarterbacked if they were wrong... saved lives.
There is another message here too, at least for those who are not already on-board: A well-stocked pantry is absolutely something to strive for. Different religious / social / ethnic groups do it differently, but at the core the result is the same. Enhanced self-reliance. Our grandparents *got* this concept. Unfortunately, we seem to have let the "just-in-time" method of inventory management bleed over into our modern pantries. Our grandparents would be gobsmacked by this behavior. I can almost hear their voices from the beyond: "Pantries should be built for just-in-CASE inventory, Roark...". IMHO our collective strategy needs to change, and I'm hopeful the current troubles will be a catalyst for showing the wisdom of this.
Update: now doubling rate is up to 16.7 days, social distancing and all the other rules simply to follow seem to work! That will save much more lives than any ICU or ventilator. It's on us to make the world a better place. Leaders usually reflect the notion of people. That is why the following generations have to remember what made dictators possible and so bear responsibility not for the deeds of the fathers but for the lessons they have to learn!
In Germany more than 90% of the tests return negative, what is positive. We run about 500,000 tests a week. With an accumulated positive result of 100,000 more then 1,000,000 tests have been made. Within one week the case number increased by 33,000. So the hit rate is 6.6%
About 470,000 positive results are documented for the US. Having comparable test density the US should have run 7121212.12.. tests, what is a funny number, as 7+1+2 = 10. Strange thinks happen. Maybe we can do more calculations to find even better numbers?