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View Full Version : 1 in 3200 odds of being hit by satellite debris



Ron Czapala
09-17-2011, 03:39 AM
Not very good odds in my humble opinion...

http://www.nhregister.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e73e9d98bc68656128748.txt

WASHINGTON U.S. space officials say they expect a dead satellite to fall to Earth in about a week.

NASA has been watching the 6-ton satellite (http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/uars-concept.html) closely. On Friday officials moved up their prediction for its arrival to Sept. 23, give or take a day.

NASA scientists have calculated the satellite will break into 26 pieces as it gets closer to Earth. The odds of it hitting someone anywhere on the planet are 1 in 3,200. The heaviest piece to hit the ground will be about 350 pounds, but no one has ever been hit by falling space junk in the past.

NASA expects to give the public more detailed information early next week. For now, all continents except Antarctica could be hit by satellite debris.

davejames
09-17-2011, 03:50 AM
...well, at least it would be different!

mindrobots
09-17-2011, 04:01 AM
Super, I'm more likely to get hit by space junk than win a lottery!!

Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi)
09-17-2011, 04:19 AM
That's one in 3200 odds of it hitting someone. With the world population around 7 billion, that's a one in 22.4 trillion chance of it hitting you. I won't be wasting any tinfoil to make a hat! :)

-Phil

Loopy Byteloose
09-17-2011, 02:31 PM
Must be a slow news day, manipulating figures to call out Chicken Little.

RS_Jim
09-17-2011, 02:45 PM
Must be a slow news day, manipulating figures to call out Chicken Little.
Shades of the Reno air disaster! However, I don't have a cave to go live in until it is over!
Jim

ElectricAye
09-17-2011, 03:24 PM
You are far more likely to get killed by a texting teenager or a drunk driver as you drive to your bunker.

sylvie369
09-17-2011, 04:54 PM
Here in Wisconsin there are radio ads for the state lottery during the Brewers games. The idea in the ads is that it seems impossible to hit a 95 MPH pitch, but it happens all the time, so why not take your chance with a lottery ticket? Then they give the odds of winning. The odds against just getting your money back are something like 1 in 650. If a guy gets a hit once in every 650 at bats, they don't even let him near the stadium.

icepuck
09-17-2011, 09:28 PM
You are far more likely to get killed by a texting teenager or a drunk driver as you drive to your bunker.

The roads here and surrounding areas have been rather deadly example this past week. Six people have been killed in road side accidents this week alone, people just don't pay attention to their driving.
-dan
http://www.kcci.com/news/29175948/detail.html
http://www.kcci.com/news/29208940/detail.html
http://www.kcci.com/news/29209468/detail.html
http://www.kcci.com/news/29196258/detail.html

Zap-o
09-18-2011, 06:07 AM
Super, I'm more likely to get hit by space junk than win a lottery!!

Makes me wonder what the odds of, winning the lottery only to be hit by space junk the next day, are.

Loopy Byteloose
09-18-2011, 06:42 AM
I am more worried that the odds of loosing money in the financial markets is something like 10 to 1. Getting killed by a satellite fragment might be considered a blessing these days. What are the odds that I will get all my Social Security Benefits? I suspect less than 50%.

And yet, I still try to be optimistic and enjoy life. Odds have a way of confounding us all.

ajward
09-18-2011, 09:07 AM
Super, I'm more likely to get hit by space junk than win a lottery!!

More likely, I'll win the lottery =then= get hit by the satellite! :blank:

@

Phil Pilgrim (PhiPi)
09-18-2011, 04:56 PM
On last evening's local news, one of the TV newspeople parroted the same misperception about those odds. It's like saying, "Well if there's a one in 3200 chance of somebody in the world getting hit, I'm just sure that somebody's gonna be me!"

I'm not sure why probability and statistics are omitted from the K-12 curriculum. Understanding that stuff really does help a person make rational choices in life, rather than relying on old wives' tales, superstition, and voodoo mathematics.

-Phil

$WMc%
09-18-2011, 07:21 PM
I's like saying,

whicker
09-19-2011, 01:27 AM
She was walking - all alone
down the street - in the ally
Her name was Sally.

I never touched her.
She never saw it
when she was hit by - space junk.
she was smashed by - space junk.
she was killed by - space junk.

In New York. Miami Beach.
Heavy metal fell.
In Cuba. Angora.
Saudia Arabia.
On Christmas Eve. Said NORAD.

The soviet Sputnik - in Africa,
India, Venezuela,
Texas, Kansas
it's falling fast - In Peru too
it keeps coming, it keeps coming,
it keeps coming!